Exploiting the experience gained in several European projects, CMCC has developed a seasonal forecasting system based on the global coupled model CMCC-CM. The seasonal predictions are performed every month, producing a 9-member ensemble integrations conducted with the coupled model for the following 6 months. In the forecasting system currently in use (CMCC-SPS2), the atmospheric initial conditions are taken form the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-term Weather Forecasts) re-analyses ERA-interim, whereas the oceanic initial state is specified using the CMCC ocean analyses. The atmospheric initial state is then properly perturbed in order to generate the set of 9 different initial conditions needed for the ensemble integrations.
Data and further information on the CMCC seasonal forecasting activity can be obtained by contacting Dr. Alessio Bellucci leader of the Climate Predictions Group.References
- Palmer T.N., A. Alessandri, U. Andersen, P. Cantelaube, M. Davey, P. Délécluse, M. Déqué, E. Díez, F. J. Doblas- Reyes, H. Feddersen, R. Graham, S. Gualdi, J.-F. Guérémy, R. Hagedorn, M. Hoshen, N. Keenlyside, M. Latif, A. Lazar, E. Maisonnave, V. Marletto, A. P. Morse, B. Orfila, P. Rogel, J.-M. Terres, M. C. Thomson, 2003: Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction (DEMETER). Bull Amer Meteo Soc, 85, 853-872. Gualdi S., A. Alessandri, and A. Navarra, 2005: Impact of atmospheric horizontal resolution on ENSO forecasts. Tellus, 57A, 357-374.
- Alessandri A., A. Borrelli, S. Masina, A. Cherchi, S. Gualdi, A. Navarra, P. Di Pietro and A. Carril, 2010: The INGV-CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: improved ocean initial conditions. Mon. Weath. Rev., 138, 2930-2952.
- Alessandri A., A. Borrelli, S. Gualdi, E. Scoccimarro and S. Masina, 2011: Tropical cyclone count forecasting using a dynamical Seasonal Prediction System: sensitivity to improved ocean initialization. J. Climate, 24, 2963-2982, DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3585.1.