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The Numerical Applications and Scenarios (ANS) Division focuses on the study, above all through numerical simulations, of climate variability and of the physical-biogeochemical interactions in the climate system and on the implementation of a pre-operational system for short-term ocean forecasting. The tools used by ANS Division are characterized by numerical models of different complexity and realism, from ocean models at global and regional (Mediterranean and Adriatic in particular) scales to more complete and coupled models atmosphere- ocean – sea-ice – vegetation – marine biogeochemistry.

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  • The main objective of this research unit is the study of the ocean role in the global climate system and the evaluation of impacts of climate change on the physical oceanic state, through the application of numerical models and data assimilation systems.

    Activities

    • The global ocean general circulation model 

    The ocean has an important role on climate changes at long time scales through the processes of heat accumulation and transport, through the large scale circulation, the distribution of biomass and the CO2 exchange at the ocean-atmosphere interface. This activity aims  to the implementation and maintenance of oceanic component of the CMCC Earth System Model to study the oceanic variability and the interaction processes between ocean and climate. The models currently used are OPA8.2 and NEMO in the global configuration of ORCA2 and ORCA025.

    • Data assimilation in the global ocean general circulation model

    The aim of data assimilation in physical oceanography is double. On the one hand the assimilation of observed data in a dynamical model of the ocean enables to rebuild the evolution of the system during the period of time covered by the observations (re-analysis). On the other hand another application is represented by the production of realistic oceanic initial conditions for the state of the ocean to be used in the initialization of models for climate predictions on scales that change from the seasonal to the decadal one. In this context various systems of data assimilation are developed and used. These systems use the global ocean circulation model as a dynamical interpolator of the observations.

  • The group develops oceanographic numerical model and data assimilation systems for the pre-operational production of global and regional oceanographic analyses and forecasts at a very high resolution. The products developed by the group are used in a broad range of applications from global ocean state estimates and forecasts to the optimal design of coastal observational platforms.

    Activities 

    • Forecasting ocean models for the Global Ocean, the Mediterranean and the Adriatic Sea.

    The Nemo ocean model with the z vertical coordinate is applied at very high resolutions in a wide range of configurations from the global to the regional scale.

    • Variational data assimilation for the Global Ocean, the Mediterranean and the Adriatic Sea.

    The OceanVar data assimilation scheme is applied with the Nemo model for the whole range of configurations.

    • Optimal design of observational networks in the coastal area.

    The very high resolution data assimilation system in the Adriatic is used to estimate the impact of existing and future coastal observing platforms  on the accuracy of ocean state estimates.

  • The objective of this research unit is the study of the Earth as a system of integrated physical and biological components. This is done by means of an Earth System Model (ESM) that allows to study the interactions between climate variability and the terrestrial and oceanic biotic components, also considering the changes in the cycles of carbon and the major biogeochemical elements under different scenarios of socio-economics development.

    Activities

    • Development and applications of the Earth System Model 

    This activity is tightly linked with the other research units at ANS and the divisions of CMCC. The main aim is to integrate the different models used at CMCC as much efficiently as possible to study the carbon cycle and the impacts of climate change on the major terrestrial and marine ecosystems. The research units also produces long term simulations of the Earth System to study changes .

    • Simulation of biogeochemical processes for the marine ecosystem

    This activity is devoted to the development and applications of marine biogeochemical models for the global scale (as a component of the Earth System Model, PELAGOS and for the regional scale (e.g. Mediterranean) to study interactions between physical and biogeochemical processes and the impacts of anthropogenic emissions. A line of investigation also integrates the data assimilation schemes developed by ANS in the framework of biogeochemical models and advanced methodologies for the assessment of model results quality. This activity also deals with the maintenance and dissemination of the BFM free-software (Biogeochemical Flux Model) and the coupling with various general circulation ocean models.

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ANS

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