The Impacts on Soil and Coast (ISC) Division is based in Capua and in Venice.
The ISC – Capua Unit has two main and important goals: the development of the regional climate model COSMO CLM together with statistical and/or stochastic methods for the climate data downscaling and the quantitative and/or qualitative evaluation of the modification of hydrological risks connected to climate changes.
The research team is involved in the activities of the CLM Community, developing the regional climate model (RCM) COSMO-CLM, representing the dynamical downscaling of global circulation models (GCM). The reasons for the development of a regional climate model are different. First of all, the GCM can not simulate realistically the regional climate details. This is particularly true on the Mediterranean area, characterized by a complex geography having a strong impact on the pattern of the atmospherical variables. It is also important to emphasize that RCMs models have also the physical and numerical features to provide a more detailed description of the climate extreme events, that often have more significant impact than their mean values on the impacts. The climate extremes exacerbate and trigger certain weather patterns (as increasing of intense precipitation events) therefore their characterization is fundamental for a correct evaluation of the hydrological risk. In fact it is a consolidated thought that climate changes have an impact on hydrological cycle as a consequence of the global temperature increasing. This gives rise to a variation in the evotranspiration, soil moisture and increase also snow and ice melting. These changes have an influence on the frequency of floods and on a certain type of landslides. Although these scenarios are now established on the global scale, there are still considerable uncertainties about these changes on the regional scale and about the connection between these last ones and the hydrological cycle.
The goal of the research is, therefore, to provide a correct link between the RCM COSMO CLM and :
- the stability analysis numerical models performing evaluation of landslide risk,
- hydrological models performing evaluation of floods and draught risks.
The development of an integrated, physically consistent system with high numerical performances allows the quantitative hydrological risk evaluation. A correct evaluation of the risks is a first and fundamental step to line up strategies for the adaptation and mitigation of hydrological risks due to climate change.
The ISC – Venice Unit is aimed at the development and application of methodologies for the analysis of environmental impacts and risks related to climate change and natural hazards. To this aim, interdisciplinary approaches and methodologies (e.g. risk and vulnerability assessment, multi criteria decision analysis, spatial analysis) are developed and applied for the assessment of multiple climate change-related-risks on different systems and sectors. In particular, Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodologies are employed in order to characterize climate related hazards, identify and rank vulnerable targets and estimate the relative risk in the considered region. All the research products are implemented in GIS-based Decision Support Systems (DSSs) that guide stakeholders and decision makers in the spatial analysis of the potential consequences associated to climate change and in the definition of suitable adaptation options.
Another branch of the ISC – Venice Unit is devoted to the analysis of the impact of climate change on pollutants’ fate and transport at the regional and global scale. The final objective of this activity is to identify potential effects of climate change in modifying the bio-availability to toxic chemicals. Multimedia fate and transport models for evaluating the climate change impacts on the environmental behaviour of Persistent Bioaccumulative and Toxic substances (PBTs) will be developed and applied on the Adriatic Sea. Another case study is focussed on the role of ice on the PBTs fate and transport in Alpine areas.
- Development of high resolution climate simulations using a dynamical downscaling on the Mediterranean area. The dynamical downscaling is performed with the regional climate model COSMO CLM. The CMCC develops this model in collaboration with the CLM Assembly;
- Coupling of COSMO CLM model with NEMO through OASIS on the Mediterranean area. The activity is performed in collaboration with the CLM Assembly;
- Development of statistical and stochastical downscaling techniques for the description of the regional climate features;
- Quantitave evaluation of the hydrological risk, mainly flood and surface landslides, connected to climate change;
- Analysis and statistic of extreme atmospherical events;
- Development of Regional Risk Assessment methodologies for the identification and prioritization of areas and targets at risk under different scenarios and the implementation of adaptation strategies;
- Development of a multi-risk approach for the integrated assessment and management of different types of risks and impacts related to climate change at the regional scale;
- Development of integrated scenarios to characterize natural and anthropogenic hazards under changing climate or natural conditions;
- Vulnerability assessment to identify physical, social, economic, and environmental factors or processes, which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of natural and climate change hazards;
- Development of GIS based Decision Support Systems for climate change and natural hazards risk assessment and management;
- Application of GIS functionalities and implementation of geodatabases for spatial analysis in the context of natural and climate change hazard estimation and vulnerability assessment;
- Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis applied to risk assessment;
- Application of Decision Analysis tools (e.g. Multi Criteria Decision Analysis, Fuzzy Logic) for supporting decision making process;
- Definition of user-oriented indicators and indexes to transfer information about climate change and natural hazard impacts and risks to different stakeholders (e.g. policy-makers, decision-makers, citizens and business sectors etc.) in a climate service perspective;
- Development or application of multimedia fate and transport models (MMM) for the study of the environmental behavior of selected chemicals (namely, PBTs);
- Database construction for MMM application and for the evaluation of the climate change impact on PBTs’ environmental fate;
- Impact of climate change on the bioavailability of PBTs.
Modelling for investigating the Climate Change Impacts on Chemicals (MCCIC)
Comparative Risk Analysis, Integrated Evaluation and Decision Support Systems (RA&DSS)
Regional Climate Model
Hydrogeological Impacts and Statistical downscaling