From extreme rainfalls to flood risk assessment

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Information from precipitation and the main feature of a river basin. The new CMCC’s research paperby ISC (Impacts on Soil and Coast) division presents a methodology to assess flood risk and to evaluate, qualitatively and quantitatively, the climate change effects on river discharge.
The aim of the study is in particular to define and test a procedure to probabilistically derive peak flood distribution from the statistical representation of extreme rainfall at the fixed durations of 1, 3, 6, 12, 24 hours over an area of interest. That is, the analysis is realized by using a simulation method that generates synthetic time series of flood events from know rainfall and derives the peak flood distribution frequency. The methodology was first applied to the Baganza river basin in the Emilia Romagna region (North Italy). Moreover, the approach was used to investigate the effects of an increase or a decrease of the average rainfall on peak flood distribution.

Read the full research paper:
From extreme areal rainfall to flood risk using a derived distribution approach with examples of climate change impacts
– A. L. Zollo, P. Mercogliano et al. – Divisione ISC – Marzo 2012.

 

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