La stima delle perdite causate da un evento di alluvione raramente include il conteggio degli impatti economici indiretti. In un articolo pubblicato sulla rivista Environmental Modelling & Software un gruppo di autori ( i ricercatori CMCC L. Carrera, G. Standardi, F. Bosello e J. Mysiak) propone un metodo per determinare gli impatti economici diretti e indiretti, analizzando un evento di alluvione verificatosi in Nord Italia.

L’abstract dell’articolo:

In this paper we developed and tested an integrated methodology for assessing direct and indirect economic impacts of flooding. The methodology combines a spatial analysis of the damage to the physical stock with a general economic equilibrium approach using a regionally-calibrated (to Italy) version of a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) global model. We applied the model to the 2000 Po river flood in Northern Italy. To account for the uncertainty in the induced effects on regional economies, we explored three disruption and two recovery scenarios. The results highlight that: i) the flood event produces indirect losses in the national economic system, which are a significant share of the direct losses, and ii) the methodology is able to capture both positive and negative economic effects of the disaster in different areas of the same country. The assessment of indirect impacts, in particular, is essential for a full understanding of the economic outcomes of natural disasters.

Leggi la versione integrale dell’articolo:
Carrera L., Standardi G., Bosello F., Mysiak J.
Assessing direct and indirect economic impacts of a flood event through the integration of spatial and computable general equilibrium modelling
2015, Environmental Modelling and Software, Volume 63, January 2015, Pages 109–122, DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.09.016