AVOID 2 – The effects of incomplete and delayed participation on the cost of climate policy 2

AVOID 2 is the follow-up of the first AVOID project which took place from 2009 to 2013. The research project, funded by UK government, will provide scientifically-robust, policy-relevant answers to questions directly related to UNFCCC.

Duration
4 months from 15/09/2014 to 16/01/2015
Funded by
  • UK Government

Coordinating organization
  • MET OFFICE

CMCC Scientific Leader
CMCC Project manager
CMCC Institutes

CMCC Divisions

General aims

The project focuses on three key questions:

  1. What are the characteristics of ‘dangerous’ climate change?
  2. What greenhouse gas emissions pathways will avoid ‘dangerous’ climate change?
  3. What is the feasibility of such pathways?

AVOID 2 will help to provide Government analysts and climate negotiating teams in both the UK and internationally with the scientifically robust and policy relevant science needed to inform their decisions.


CMCC Role

The CMCC team, provides input to Work Package C2 (WPC2): “New emissions scenarios for long-term temperature goals”. This will deliver an initial report on a new set of emissions scenarios designed within AVOID to investigate a series of long-term temperature goals. The report will cover (regional and global) costs, technology deployment patterns, details of maximum rates of decarbonisation.


Expected results

AVOID 2 Project will add new insights into the feasibility of the transition to a low-carbon global economy, by investigating in detail the regional technology deployment patterns that would allow GHG emissions to be significantly reduced. Specifically, the research will consider the implications of reduced rates of deployment – or delays in the introduction of – key low-carbon technologies, the implications of achieving only limited levels of electrification of energy usage in buildings, industry and transport, and the impact of a slower uptake of energy efficiency technologies than often results from such modelling exercises.


Activity

The CMCC will model CO2 mitigation using WITCH, delivering the following outputs:

  • Details of CO2 mitigation technologies and measures undertaken in the WITCH CO2 mitigation model in 15 different mitigation scenarios
  • Relevant data and explanations to support the rationale behind results
  • Appropriate text on the WITCH CO2 mitigation model, results and references for input into the overall WPC2 report
  • Further support for the successful integration of the model and its results into AVOID

Partners
  • Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine
  • MET OFFICE
  • Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
  • Walker Institute - University of Reading

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