CMCC Scientific LeaderTop Top Top Top
The aim of this project is to assess the implications of tropical deforestation as a mitigation option in reducing GHGs within an international climate agreement context. The integrated assessment model WITCH was enriched with new data on mitigation supply curves covering the forestry sectors for the most richly endowed tropical countries. Such a new dataset was available from the REDD database of the Woods Hole Research Center . This integration allowed to analyze a complex set of issues that bring together energy utilization, environmental protection and economic competitiveness.
The CMCC carried on the research work with the enhancing of WITCH, the running of the simulations and the preparation of a paper for the presentation of results during two UNFCCC side events.Expected resultsTop
By comparing cases when REDD is included with those where it is excluded from the carbon market, we have found the following results:
- Assuming a Post Kyoto ICA, emissions from deforestation in Brazil can be significantly reduced from 2015 onward, and almost completely eliminated by 2030 (ancillary benefits).
- Brazilian REDD can contribute up to 15% of global abatement, in the short term, less in the longer term.
- Carbon prices are reduced by roughly 10%. Positive effect on global policy costs.
- Energy mitigation portfolio and technological innovation are not significantly affected by REDD (but nuclear declines in the long term). CCS deploys from 2020 onwards in both cases.
- As a first step, the REDD supply mitigation cost curves have been built and made them suitable to be incorporated in the WITCH model. Curves have been derived from a Woods Hole study that focuses on the Brazilian Amazon only. The issue of permanency of carbon sequestration of forests has led to experimenting with different accounting rules; eventually, 50-yrs equivalent rental rates has been selected as the most appropriate given the long term focus of the analysis.
- Once the model has been augmented with the forestry component, simulations have been run assuming a climate stabilization policy consistent with 550 ppme by 2100, a standard reference level for serious mitigation policies. We have assumed an International Climate Agreement from 2010, covering a global carbon market. Rights have been allocated on the basis of the Equal Per Capita rule, and full participation of all countries has been assumed.
- Many uncertainties surround forestry baseline emissions and abatement cost figures, in order to increase the robustness of our analysis, the effect of linking REDD to a global carbon market has been investigated using different data sets. In particular, three set of cost curves for the whole century have been coupled with the WITCH model: – for the Brazilian tropical forest only, based on data developed from the Woods Hole Research Center (Nepstad et al. 2008); – for all world tropical forests, based on the Global Timber Model of Brent Sohngen, Ohio State University (version used within the Energy Modeling Forum 21); – for all world tropical forests, based on data from the IIASA cluster model (Eliasch 2008; Gusti et al. 2008). A basic policy scenario has been developed and analysed for the different REDD scenarios. The role of banking of emission permits and how this affect the role of REDD has also been investigated.