RP0088 – Climatic study of precipitation and temperature distribution over the Alps and the Italian Peninsula, using the High-Resolution Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM

4/2010
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This report is concentrated on the High-Resolution Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM and the climatic and statistical analysis of the model’s results concerning the precipitation and temperature on the Alpine area and the Italian Peninsula. The study represents a first attempt aimed to investigate the impact of climate change in these areas. For this purpose, firstly, an observational database for Italy and the Alpine area was created, which was used for the validation and statistical analysis of the COSMO model results.
Then, a climatic analysis was performed for the precipitation and temperature data that derive from two regional climate simulations of the climate of the XX century (control run) using the model Cosmo-CLM and employing for the generation of boundary conditions, respectively, ECHAM4 T106 (~ 120km resolution, 12h time resolution) driving data and ERA40 (~ 120km resolution, 6h time res.). The space resolution of both simulations was 14Km (1/8 with respect to the global model) and the time step 150 sec. The study concerned the Alpine area extending from 2° -20° East and 40° – 52° North, for the time period 1971-
2000. Furthermore, precipitation and temperature data output that derived from the regional climate simulation of the Cosmo-CLM model for the period 2000-2100, were studied. For the future simulation, the IPCC A1B emission scenario was employed. The space resolution of the simulation was 14Km (1/8 with respect to the global model) and the time step 150sec. The ECHAM4 global driving data were used. The model output for both time periods were compared in order to detect any potential future changes in the precipitation and temperature spatial distribution over the Alpine area.
Finally, due to the still occurring misrepresentation of local climate in regional climate model COSMO-CLM, statistical post processing was applied to overcome this problem leading to qualitatively enhanced climate information.
More specifically, in the frame of the activity of the European project TRUST, the statistical bias correction method Quantile Mapping was performed for the local area of Veneto (11.5°-12°E , 45.8°-46.3), in order to compare and analyze the relation of atmospheric parameters from climate model simulations to meteorological observations.
The results of the study are presented analytically in following section.

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CMCC Divisions

Authors

  • Christina Oikonomou
  • Keywords: Alps, Bias Correction, Climate Change, Italy, precipitation, Quantile Mapping, Regional climate model Cosmo-CLM, temperature

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