Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC – REMHI Division)
Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC – IAFES Division)
Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC – ECIP Division), Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)
12:30 - Welcome and intro, Margaretha Breil – ECIP Division
12:35 – Speaker’s talk, Guido Rianna – REMHI Division
13:05 – Discussant’s comments, Monia Santini – IAFES Division
13:10 – Q&A
Over the past years, pyroclastic covers mantling slopes in the Campania Region of Southern Italy have frequently been affected by flowslides. Due to high exposure and demographic pressure in the affected areas, assessment of the potential effects of climate change on the frequency of such events has become a crucial issue. In this perspective, in last years, REMHI Division has deeply investigated such issue within different research projects (e.g. SAFELAND, INTACT, GEMINA). To this aim, different simulation chains have been developed and tested. They differ for (i) involved climate models (e.g. single model at very high resolution or ensemble simulations), (ii) impact tools (rainfall thresholds, statistical methods or physically based models) and (iii) approaches attempting to “bridge the gap” between the previous ones (e.g. adopting or not bias correction approaches). In the work, the main findings achieved are displayed and properly discussed; moreover, strengths and weaknesses of different approaches are stressed allowing to adopt them, in consistent way, also on other geo-hydrological hazards characterized by similar features.
Working language: English
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