Seasonal Predictions

Exploiting the experience gained in several European projects, the CMCC has developed a seasonal forecasting system based on the global coupled model CMCC-CM. The seasonal predictions are performed every month, producing a 9-member ensemble integrations conducted with the coupled model for the following 6 months. In the forecasting system currently in use (CMCC-SPS2), the atmospheric initial conditions are taken form the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-term Weather Forecasts) re-analyses ERA-interim, whereas the oceanic initial state is specified using the CMCC ocean analyses. The atmospheric initial state is then properly perturbed in order to generate the set of 9 different initial conditions needed for the ensemble integrations.



Antonella Sanna – CSP Division


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