Frane: casi studio e metodologie a confronto

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Negli ultimi anni, i potenziali effetti dei cambiamenti climatici sul ciclo idrogeologico, e in special modo sui rischi idrogeologici dovuti a particolari condizioni meteorologiche (“meteo-indotti”), hanno suscitato un interesse crescente.
In uno studio puublicato di recente on Electric Journal on Geotechnical Engineering (EJGE), un gruppo di ricercatori (fra cui V. Villani, G. Rianna, P. Mercogliano, A.L. Zollo della Divisione REMHI del CMCC) ha realizzato un confronto delle performance di due diversi approcci utilizzati per analizzare diversi tipi di rischio idrogeologico, in zone geografiche e con caratteristiche geomorfologiche diverse.
 Entrambe le metodologie sono state applicate a due casi studio italiani: Cervinara (Campania, Italia meridionale) e Orvieto (Umbria, Italia Centrale). Negli ultimi anni, infatti, i pendii di entrambe le aree sono stati interessati da frane e cedimenti, sebbene con diverse caratteristiche.

L’abstract dell’articolo:
To properly evaluate weather variables regulating the occurrence of geo-hydrological hazards, the current constraints of climate models imply the need of adopting statistical approaches in cascade to GCM/RCM for the assessment of the potential variations associated to climate changes. Since, in recent years, several approaches, often freely available, have been proposed and applied to investigate various hazards in different geographical areas and geomorphological contexts, a deeper understanding about their performances and constraints is crucial; in the work, it is carried out focusing the attention on two kind of approaches widely adopted in impact studies: bias correction methods(in particular, quantile mapping tools) and weather generators. Both methodology have been applied to outputs of an high resolution RCM simulation carried out on Italian territory for analyzing two very localized (and then challenging) landslide case studies. Beyond an assessment about relative performances in reproducing weather variables on the areas, the goal concerns an increasing awareness about how these approaches could affect the climate signal, physically detected by RCM, not only in outputs weather variables but also in derived components of soil surface budgets strictly governing the occurrence of landslide phenomena.

Leggi e scarica la versione integrale dell’articolo:
Villani V., Rianna G., Mercogliano P., Zollo A. L.
Statistical approaches versus weather generator to downscale RCM outputs to slope scale for stability assessment: a comparison of performances
2015, Electronic Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, Vol.20.4 pp 1495-1515

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