Lecce, Italy - January 21 / 25, 2008
Winter School

The school covers a wide spectrum of topics on extremes and climate. It is mainly addressed to PhD students and young postdocs. Lectures include a general introduction to climate extremes, to methods for their analysis and description, assessment of trends and changes, data collection, analysis of climate records, identification of observed trends and future projected changes with focus on the European-Mediterranean region.

University of Lecce – Monastero degli Olivetani

Director of the school: P. Lionello

Organizing Committee
G. Aloisio, A. Blanco, C. Carraro, A. Navarra, Hans von Storch

Organization secretariat
A.Lezzi – Tel: +39 0832 293288 – Fax: +39 0832 293287 – alessandra.lezzi@cmcc.it


  • Ricardo Garcia (University complutense, Madrid, Spain)
  • Clare Goodess (CRU; East Anglia university, UK)
  • Piero Lionello (University of Salento, Italy)
  • Jürg Luterbacher (University of Bern, Switzerland)
  • Olivier Mestre (Meteo France), France
  • Heiko Paeth (University of Wuerzburg)
  • Gianfausto Salvadori (University of Salento, Italy)
  • Elena Xoplaki (University of Bern, Switzerland)


Monday, 21 January 2008

8:30  Registration

9:00  Welcome by Prof. D.Laforgia, Rector of the University of Salento
9:10   Introduction to extremes and indicators for analysis of extremes (Piero Lionello)
10:00  A classic examples: extreme surges in Venice (Piero Lionello)
11:00  Coffee Break
11:30  Introduction to extreme values analysis (Olivier Mestre)
12:30  Decadal changes of extremes in China (Xuefeng Cui)
Circulations and Mechanisms Governing Extreme Summer Temperatures over the Eastern Mediterranean (Tzvika Harpaz)
13:15  Lunch
14:45  Introduction to extreme values analysis (cont.) (Olivier Mestre)
15:45  Indices for European daily temperature and precipitation extremes, 1901-2000 (Elena Xoplaki)
16:45  Coffee Break
17.15  Group meetings

Tuesday, 22 January 2008

9:00  Analysis of  extreme  temperatures and their  health impact (Ricardo Garcia)
10:00  European summer heat waves and their relation to large scale forcings (Elena Xoplaki)
11:00  Coffee Break
11:30  Assessing trends in extremes (Olivier Mestre)
12:30  Extreme climate events on a centennial to millennium scale with focus on past storm climate in Southern Sweden. (Carin Nilsson)
The  effects of El Nino and La Nina Events on Wildlife and Tourism in Masai  Mara Migration Corridor (Tom Ndege)
Analysis of the determinants of farmer choice of adaptation methods and perceptions to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia (Temesgen T. Deressa)
Monthly precipitation in Mediterranean areas of Spain: some examples of trends (Jose Carlos Gonzalez Hidalgo)
13:15  Lunch
14:15  Synoptic analysis of drougths through objective algorithms (Ricardo Garcia)
15:15  Seasonal temperature and precipitation in the Mediterranean: trends and extremes (Elena Xoplaki)
16:15 Coffee Break
16:45 Group meetings

Wednesday, 23 January 2008

8:30  Long term perspective of extremes derived from documentary sources. (Ricardo Garcia)
  Introduction to climate models and the detection problem of man-made climate change (Heiko Paeth)
10:30  Coffee Break
Introduction to phenology; current extremes in Europe and relation to climate (Jürg Luterbacher)
12:00  Environmental accounting frameworks for Climate Change (Alessandra La Notte)
12:15  Lunch
13:15  Trip to Otranto

Thursday, 24 January 2008

9:00  Problems and issues in extreme value statistics (Heiko Paeth)
10:00  European phenological extremes in the past (Jürg Luterbacher)
11:00 Coffee Break
11:30  Simulated climate extremes in the 20th and 21st centuries (Heiko Paeth)
12:30  A method for comparing the spectrum of precipitation intensities of climate models to observations (P. Berg)
Comparing GCM simulations of climate moisture variability to observed and dendroclimatic records (Suzan Lapp)
Challenges in modeling the North Sea (E.Meyer)
13:15  Lunch
14:45  Statistical downscaling of extremes (Clare Goodess)
15:45  Copulas, definition, properties and  extreme value analysis (Gianfausto Salvadori)
16:45  Coffee Break
17:15  Group meetings

Friday, 25 January 2008

9:00  Providing information about extremes to users and stakeholders. (Clare Goodess)
  Application of copulas: analysis of rain storms and sea storms (Gianfausto Salvadori)
11:30  The challenge of reconstructing past European temperature and precipitation extremes from multiproxy data (Jürg Luterbacher)
  Evolution scenarios of Mediterranean cyclones (Meytal Romem)
Consistency of observed precipitation and temperature trends in Northern Europe with regional climate change simulations (Jonas Bhend)
A tree-ring network to understand the impact of the recent climate change on the growth of Italian forests (A. Di Filippo)
13:15  Lunch
Climate change impacts and adaptation – what do we still need to know about extremes? (Clare Goodess)
15:15  Group meetings
16:15  Coffee Break
16:45  Group meetings
20:00 Social dinner

When and WhereTop
Lecce, Italy - January 21 / 25, 2008