Heavy rainfall and flooding associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) are responsible for a large number of fatalities and economic damage worldwide. Despite their large socio-economic impacts, research into heavy rainfall and flooding associated with TCs has received limited attention to date, and still represents a major challenge. Our capability to adapt to future changes in heavy rainfall and flooding associated with TCs is inextricably linked to and informed by our understanding of the sensitivity of TC rainfall to likely future forcing mechanisms.

Two new referred papers on Journal of Climate investigate about intense precipitation events associated with TCs in a warmer climate and increased CO2.

More in detail, in a study recently published, a team of scientists (among them, CMCC researcher Enrico Scoccimarro from SERC Division) used a set of idealized high-resolution atmospheric model experiments produced as part of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group activity to examine TC response to idealized global-scale perturbations: the doubling of CO2, uniform 2K increases in global sea surface temperature (SST), and their combined impact.

In another work the authors (among them, CMCC researchers Enrico Scoccimarro, Silvio Gualdi and Antonio Navarra from SERC Division) investigate possible changes in the intensity of rainfall events associated with TCs under idealized forcing scenarios, including a uniformly warmer climate, with a special focus on landfalling storms. A new set of experiments designed within the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group allowed disentangling the relative role of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide from that played by sea surface temperature in changing the amount of precipitation associated with TCs in a warmer world.
Results highlighted the contribution of landfalling TCs to the projected increase in the precipitation changes affecting the tropical coastal regions.

Read the integral version of the papers:
Villarini G., Lavers D. A. , Scoccimarro E., Zhao M., Wehner M. F. , Vecchi G.A., Knutson T., Reed K. A
Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall to Idealized Global Scale Forcings
2014, Journal of Climate, in press, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00780.1

Scoccimarro E., Gualdi S., Villarini G., Vecchi G. A., Zhao M., Walsh K., Navarra A.
Intense precipitation events associated with landfalling tropical cyclones in response to a warmer climate and increased CO2
2014, Journal of Climate, in press, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00065.1