Compared to a hypothetical scenario where no climate change is assumed to occur, a temperature increase of only 1.92 °C compared to pre – industrial levels in 2050 could result in global GDP losses of nearly 0.5%. It’s the result of a recent study carried out by CMCC’s CIP division (Climate Impacts Policies. An Economic Assessment).
The paper, published by CMCC’s authors Francesco Bosello, Fabio Eboli and Roberta Pierfederici, illustrate an economic evaluation based on a CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) approach.
While some regions are expected to take advantage of the evaluated temperature increase, such as Northern Europe, other regions, such as Southern and Eastern Europe, or some of the poorest regions of the world, such as South Asia, South – East Asia, North Africa and Sub – Saharan Africa are expected to suffer from the climate change scenario analysed. In the developing countries is in particular at risk agriculture, and the impact on crop productivity appears to be the more dramatic effect of climate change.

In another CMCC’s research paper developed by CIP division, Melania Michetti and Ramiro Parrado analyse the potential role of the European forestry sector within climate mitigation, by developing an improved version of the same model. The analysis considers two sets of climate policies: a first scenario, in which Europe is supposed to commit unilaterally to reduce its CO2 emissions by 2020 (20% and 30% with respect to 1990 levels), and a second scenario in which,  additionally, carbon sequestration subsidies are paid to European firms  in the forest sector to support forestry practices. Results underline that including forest carbon sequestration in the compliance strategy  reduces the carbon price, and reinforces other mitigation measures.
Indeed, carbon sinks provided by European temperate forests do not have  a significant mitigation potential and result not able to fully comply with emissions reduction targets. Finally, a more effective forest mitigation strategy would require the involvement of other regions, especially those where old-growth forests exist.

Read the full research papers:

Assessing the economic impacts of climate change. An update CGE point of view – F. Bosello, F. Eboli et al. – CIP division – January 2012
Improving land-use modelling within CGE to assess forest-based mitigation potential and costs – M. Michetti, R. Parrado – CIP division – February 2012

Photo by buksy4free