Chiara Antonelli – PhD Candidate – University of Rome Tor Vergata
Shouro Dasgupta – Researcher at CMCC@Ca’ Foscari
Climate policy debates have recognised that some areas of the world experience higher levels of vulnerability to climate change than others. More specifically, climate change affects the quality and quantity of agricultural production that directly threatens food security and nutritional adequacy in the poorer populations. Thus, it is expected that the nutrition and food security in agricultural-based economies will be heavily impacted under future climate change scenarios.
As a consequence, nutrient intake impacts not only the current supply of labour but its future productivity. Hence, the corresponding health impacts of nutrition on labour productivity can be considered as indirect effects of climate change on labour. Extreme climate events will impose a negative impact on nutrition, which is already at an alarming low state. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to empirically investigate how climatic shocks affect labour supply through the variation in dietary intakes.
The study examines the amount and the composition of food consumption under the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. The empirical part of this study is based on a two-step econometric model of agricultural consumption which makes use of household survey data for Uganda. The first step derives a relationship between climatic factors and calorie intake from food consumption. The second step unfolds the causality effects of nutrition on labour supply.
The outcome of the empirical estimates is used to calibrate an integrated model of climate change and economic growth. This is an overlapping generation model with a two-sector economy and two skill level. Adults work in each sector and earn wages that are used toward consumption and child-rearing. Each adult decides about the number and skill level of her children in order to maximize her utility. The utility is based on the adult’s own consumption level and the projected wages of her children. The model is used to project the impact of future climate change on nutrition and labour supply under different SSP scenarios.
While the relative productivity of agricultural sector compared to industrial sector is reduced by climate change damages, the consequent reduction in consumption of agricultural products might be compensated by the increase in industrial productivity.