The project aims at assessing both vulnerability to climate change impacts and adaptation measures with a specific focus on water, providing the basis for the identfication of adaptation measures to be either promoted or prevented at EU level.
20 months from 01/01/2010 to 01/08/2011
This project addresses a number of strategic issues and knowledge gaps identified in the EU’s White Paper on Adaptation. Project results include models, frameworks, scenarios and tools for decision support; the assessment of vulnerability and key adaptation measures are also addressed. Overall, the project results represent a series of tools able to support the strategic approach envisaged in the White Paper, which will help to ensure coherency, timeliness and effectiveness of adaptation measures, improve the knowledge base and facilitate the exchange of best practice between countries and regions. The project will analyse a set of comprehensive scenarios, identify and assess potential adaptation measures, with the involvement of experts and stakeholders.
CMCC Role
Design and development of vulnerability indicators, provision of a Computable General Equilibrium model for the integrated assessment framework, and methodological support for multi-disciplinary integration and stakeholders’ involvement.
Expected results
An integrated assessment framework consisting of datasets and tools with a geographical resolution targeting river basins and NUTS-2 levels, with particular focus on the four sectors agriculture, energy, industry, and tourism.
Activity
- Task 1 – Building the integrated assessment framework: Task 1 sets to integrate existing models and datasets into a Integrated Assessment Framework (IAF). The IAF will be used for i) assessing vulnerability of key sectors and regions to future climate change, and ii) assign the performance of selected set of adaptation measures. The first version of the integrated assessment framework will be completed within the first 5 months. Later, and taking into account recommendations from the steering group, the framework will be extended so as to meet the project objectives.
- Task 2 – Reference scenarios: Task 2 sets to simulate and analyse in-depth climate change induced changes to water quantity and quality in the EU-27 Member States. To this end, a set of reference scenarios will be specified, taking into account socio-economic development, land-use changes and climate alteration. The reference scenarios are key component of the project’s activities as they build a basis for identification and assessment of vulnerable regions/sectors and assessment of adaptation measures.
- Task 3 – Measures: Building on previous results, task 3 will identify potential adaptation measures and assess their effectiveness and feasibility. The assessment criteria will be based on a set of policy-relevant, scalable, transferable, context-specific and comparable metrics (criteria & indicators).
- Task 4 – Expert review and Stakeholder participation: Task 4 will ensure external review and collect feedback for the above project activities. The modelling framework, reference scenarios and assessment results will be corroborated by internationally distinguished experts and key stakeholders
Partners
- CESR - Center for Environmental Systems Research
- CMCC - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
- ALTERRA - Alterra B.V. The Netherlands
- Ecologic, Institute for International and European Environmental Policy