A new study predicts how flooding may expand with rising sea levels in a specific area, offering actionable guidance for urban planning and coastal resilience. The research identifies where seawater is most likely to pass through gaps in dunes and inundate urban and agricultural areas during extreme sea level events. Led by CMCC, the study provides the first high-resolution maps of coastal flood hazards for the municipality of Lecce in Salento, Italy.

Lecce, Italy – A new CMCC-led study published in the Journal of Water and Climate Change combines advanced one-metre-resolution digital terrain modelling with projections of extreme sea levels – due to simultaneous occurrence of high tides, storm surge, wave setup and long-term mean sea level rise – to provide a detailed 35-year outlook for the Lecce coastline, offering crucial guidance for local authorities, stakeholders, and residents.

The findings pinpoint the areas most at risk, highlighting specific streets, former lagoons, and compromised dune belts where flooding could occur. The study also offers concrete recommendations for preserving dune systems, maintaining drainage canals, and integrating flood risk into long-term urban planning, providing crucial guidance for local authorities, stakeholders, and residents.

Key findings

• Vulnerable ingress points include gaps and damaged stretches of the dune belt, key roads, and reclamation canals.
• Areas near former ponds, lagoons, and dune-removed zones are particularly susceptible to flooding.
• Of the 15 km of coastline analysed, the northern sectors – Spiaggiabella, Torre Chianca, and a specific site in Frigole – are the most at risk.
• For example, the urbanised flooded area during extreme events could nearly double from 11 hectares in 2020 to 20 hectares by 2060 in the site of “Spiaggiabella”.

Eight detailed flood maps are publicly available in the study’s supplementary data here.

To use the maps, please contact the CMCC Press Office (contact details below).

A call to action for coastal resilience

The study’s results underscore the importance of the preservation and ecological restoration of existing dune systems, to help buffer future impacts. Heavy summer parking near areas adjacent to ponds and dunes should be discouraged to reduce soil compaction and impermeabilization, which in turn intensifies long-range flooding. Regular maintenance of reclamation canals would likely improve drainage and reduce flood risk. “However, continuous monitoring through instrumental networks remains essential for anticipating future flood events,” says Gianandrea Mannarini, CMCC researcher and first author of the study, “and, ultimately, the most effective approach is to embed these vulnerabilities into long-term urban planning frameworks.”

Specific areas identified as vulnerable include:

• Spiaggiabella: The former Fiumicelli lagoon area, particularly between Via Portonovo and via Porto Ercole, as well as the area between via Positano and via Ortona.
• Torre Chianca: The zone around the Fetida pond affecting Piazza Paradiso and surrounding streets.
• Frigole: Seawater could overtop Lungomare Attilio Mori through a passage near a beach club.

“As both a researcher and a citizen of Lecce, I felt uniquely positioned to help our territory confront long-standing challenges and prepare for the future,” said Mannarini, “and to directly support those entrusted with shaping the future of our land.”

CMCC’s role in tackling coastal challenges

CMCC coordinated the research, participated in the 2022–2023 public consultation for Lecce’s urban plan (PUG), and participated in advisory board meetings with the municipal administration. Researchers from CMCC and Politecnico di Milano collaborated to produce and publish the final study.

More information:

Gianandrea Mannarini, Mario Leonardo Salinas, Giorgia Verri, Vladimir Santos Da Costa, Riccardo Barzaghi, Daniela Carrion; Coastal flood hazard for Lecce, Italy, from breaches in the dunes. Journal of Water and Climate Change 2025; jwc2025764. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2025.764