At COP30 in Belém, forests take centre stage in the debate with the TFFF, the international fund aimed at protecting tropical areas from deforestation and highlighting their crucial role in climate policies. In this context, a new study by authors from the CMCC highlights that climate change will dramatically increase wildfire danger globally, with almost all fire-prone regions expected to experience heightened risk by the end of this century: “Climate-driven fire danger is not a distant or localized issue, but a growing global challenge that demands proactive action,” comments Maria Vincenza Chiriacò, CMCC researcher, author of the paper, and now engaged in negotiations at COP30 in the AFOLU group on Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use.

A new study, led by CMCC and Coventry University, reveals that climate change will dramatically expand wildfire danger across the globe, with up to 91% of fire-prone regions experiencing heightened risk by the end of this century.

However, these changes are not just limited to areas that are traditionally fire-prone but could also affect ones that have rarely experienced wildfire risk in the past.

“Wildfire danger is expanding and intensifying due to climate change,” says CMCC researcher and co-author of the study Maria Vincenza Chiriacò. “The key takeaway from this study is that climate-driven fire danger is not a distant or localized issue, but a growing global challenge that demands proactive action.”

Some of the most pronounced increases in fire danger are expected in regions such as southern Africa, the Mediterranean region, northern Asia, northeastern South America, and parts of North America.

“The findings highlight how climate-driven fire danger will evolve globally, with important implications for livelihoods and ecosystem resilience,” says co-author of the study and climate scientist at Coventry University, Jonathan Eden. “It’s crucial that science continues to inform policy and planning to protect forest ecosystems and communities”

Under the highest emission scenario, the projected fire danger in large parts of North America, Eurasia, South America and southern Africa could represent conditions that had less than a 1% chance of occurring during the recent historical period.

The figure above illustrates two of the scenarios when significant increases in fire danger will become sustained and clearly exceed historical patterns. Many regions, including parts of South America, Africa and Europe, are already experiencing these changes or will very soon. Source: Gallo et al., 2025.

“This research is a step forward in providing more reliable projections of future fire danger under climate change, so we can better inform policy and planning, especially in regions where it is expected to rise,” says lead author of the study Carolina Gallo.

“We offer a more nuanced view of future fire risk, which is critical for long-term strategies in climate adaptation and land management,” concludes Chiriacò.

Read the paper:

Gallo, C., Dieppois, B., Quilcaille, Y., Chiriacò, M. V., Drobyshev, I., Fulé, P.Z., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Blackett, M. and Eden, J.M. (2025). Future impacts of climate change on global fire weather: Insight from weighted CMIP6 multi-model ensembles. Journal of Climate, 38(22), 6445–6462. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0540.1

Cover picture by Ivars Utināns on Unsplash