Beyond the two-week wall: Unlocking the secrets of climate oscillations
We live in a strange middle ground between having virtual certainty about tomorrow’s weather whilst knowing little about what will happen beyond the two-week forecast wall. Understanding how the future climate will oscillate is some of the most exciting terrain in climate science, as research shines an ever brighter light on the months, years and even decades ahead. “Climate oscillations are patterns that the climate systems organize into that are on time scales beyond weather [and] which have a large human impact,” explains Jeffrey Weiss, CMCC Bassi Fellow and Professor at the University of Colorado Boulder as he explains how these processes provide the potential for extended range forecast skill beyond the two-week weather predictability limit.
Weather forecasting is one of science’s great success stories. With sophisticated models, satellites and supercomputers we are able to dip our toes into the future and plan our daily – if not weekly – activities. And yet, we’ve all found ourselves lost in that middle ground where we want to plan a hike or outdoor activity a couple of weeks in advance, only to get no clear answers on what the weather will be. “Weather is the microscale of climate and we understand a lot about it,” says Weiss.