As global temperatures continue to rise, a new study published in the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management reveals that the increasing adoption of air conditioning as an adaptation strategy will significantly drive up residential electricity consumption worldwide, creating both economic and equity challenges, as well as environmental concerns.

The research, conducted by an international team – including Enrica De Cian and Giacomo Falchetta of CMCC and Ca’ Foscari University Venice, and Filippo Pavanello – provides the first globally-relevant empirical assessment of how household air conditioning impacts electricity consumption across 25 countries representing 62% of the world’s population and 73% of global electricity consumption.

“As the planet warms, the demand for air conditioning to stay cool among households is growing, and it will significantly drive up residential electricity consumption globally, creating both economic challenges like cooling energy poverty and environmental pollution,” explains Falchetta.

The study found that air conditioning ownership increases household electricity consumption by 36% on average globally. By 2050, global residential electricity demand for cooling could reach nearly 1,400 TWh/year – comparable to India’s total electricity consumption in 2020 – resulting in additional CO2 emissions of 670-956 Mt and associated costs of $124-177 billion.

Another key finding of the research is the emergence of cooling poverty – the regressive financial burden of cooling on lower-income households. The study reveals that while high-income households allocate between 0.2% to 2.5% of their expenditure on air conditioning use, the poorest households may spend up to 8% of their budget on electricity for cooling.

“In developing countries, a substantial fraction of households that adopt air conditioning will be low income, and will face significant expenditure burdens to attain thermal comfort, raising the specter of cooling poverty,” notes Falchetta.

The research demonstrates that cooling poverty is an emerging indicator of energy poverty in a warming climate, particularly affecting vulnerable populations in developing regions. While air conditioning prevalence is projected to grow from the current global average of 28% to 41-55% by 2050, significant disparities will persist, with penetration rates in African countries remaining below 15%.

The projected surge in cooling electricity demand poses challenges for both electricity supply systems and climate policy. The study estimates that satisfying the cooling-driven increase in peak electricity demand in India alone may require an 18% to 29% expansion of generation capacity.

However, the research also provides some evidence that solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation could help mitigate these impacts, with households in areas with higher PV power generation associated with 25% less electricity for cooling, though the estimates lack precision.

The findings highlight the importance of addressing both the adaptation needs of vulnerable populations and the environmental consequences of increased air conditioning use. Policies promoting energy-efficient cooling technologies and renewable energy integration will be crucial in managing this growing challenge.

Exploring cooling solutions

The findings of this research align with the ongoing exhibition “The Cooling Solution” currently showcased at the Institut français Milano until July 22, 2025. The exhibition, which previously traveled to Venice, New York, and London, uses photography to investigate how people of different socioeconomic backgrounds around the world adapt to high temperatures and humidity.

The exhibition offers a visual journey through people’s lived experiences of ineffective and inefficient cooling, hypercooling, heat dumping, vernacular architecture, and cutting-edge cooling technologies in Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Italy.

The research paper “The impact of air conditioning on residential electricity consumption across world countries” and the exhibition “The Cooling Solution” both contribute to a deeper understanding of the complex challenges of thermal adaptation in a warming world, highlighting the need for equitable and sustainable cooling solutions.

For more information:

Enrica De Cian, Giacomo Falchetta, Filippo Pavanello, Yasmin Romitti, Ian Sue Wing, The impact of air conditioning on residential electricity consumption across world countries, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Volume 131, 2025, 103122, ISSN 0095-0696, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2025.103122