Climate refugees are likely to become one of the main humanitarian emergencies as well as one of the most dramatic and visible effects of global warming.
The dramatic scenario described in the report commissioned by the government is one of the most detailed studies on the effect of flooding, drought, and rising sea levels regarding human migration patterns over the next 50 years.
Professor Sir John Beddington, head of the Foresight programme, says that “Environmental change will especially hit the world’s poorest, and millions will migrate into, rather than away from, areas of environmental vulnerability.”
To tackle problems inherent in the consideration of future migration and environmental change, the report develops a number of scenarios to portray stylised representations of reasonable and possible futures, proposing different solutions to environmental changes. According to the report, we need a change of paradigm: migration should not be seen simply as a problem, but in many cases as an opportunity of adapting to climate change.
Neil Adger, professor of environmental economics at the University of East Anglia says, “Trying to stop migration from climate change might be risky; instead, the government should attempt to anticipate human movement and find ways of managing the migration properly.” This means, for example, equipping cities in developing countries with adequate infrastructure, such as access to clean water, sanitation, and energy.”
Scientists say that if we do not develop policies today to plan for the impact of climate change on populations the cost will be much greater and more dramatic in the future.