A new Science Advances study by CMCC shows that pursuing net-zero climate policies and avoiding temporary overshoot of the 1.5°C temperature limit could prevent 207,000 premature deaths and save $2,269 billion USD in economic damages by 2030 by improving air quality. The research highlights that ambitious climate action not only limits global warming but also delivers immediate health and economic co-benefits, providing strong evidence for the importance of stringent mitigation policies worldwide.

Air pollution is one of the world’s leading health risks, contributing to nearly 1 in 8 deaths globally. A new study published in Science Advances by CMCC shows that stringent climate policies designed to avoid temporarily exceeding 1.5°C warming could prevent hundreds of thousands of premature deaths while avoiding trillions of dollars in economic damages.

The researchers used a global source-receptor air pollution model to estimate the impacts of net-zero pathways on air quality, health, and economic costs. They found that avoiding temperature overshoot could prevent 207,000 premature deaths and reduce $2,269 billion USD in damages by 2030, equivalent to roughly 2% of 2020’s global GDP. The benefits are particularly notable in regions with high population density and pollution, such as China and India.

“This work shows, in a comprehensive and robust way, that pursuing short-term temperature stabilization is worthwhile,” says CMCC scientist Lara Aleluia Reis. “Not only does it reduce climate risks, it also brings significant health benefits by improving air quality.”

The study is the first to quantify the air pollution co-benefits of limiting short-term temperature overshoot. By considering multiple scenarios, uncertainties, and regional variations, the research provides robust evidence that climate mitigation policies offer substantial dual benefits: reducing greenhouse gas emissions and saving lives through cleaner air.

Read the paper:

Clàudia Rodés-Bachs et al., Beyond the limit: The estimated air pollution damages of overshooting the temperature target.Sci. Adv.11,eadu7590(2025).DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adu7590