Hot spots from the CMCC side-event

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The joint side event – Hot spots. Projections and impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean and Caribbean Areas – represents a concrete action of the cooperation set up between these two research centers.
In 2005 the CCCCC has been recognized as a Centre of Excellence by the World Bank, various UN Agencies and Governments crediting it to enable the grant from the Government of Italy. This grant was provided under a Memorandum of Understanding, signed on December 15, 2004 in Buenos Aires, between the Ministry of the Environment and Territories of Italy and the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre. In the same year, CMCC was established with the support of the Italian Ministries of the Environment, Land and Sea, Education, University and Research, and Economy and Finance.

The side event has been introduced by Dr. Corrado Clini who stressed the role of collaboration. Especially, similarities and differences of these two areas could help to understand and design measures dealing with climate change effects.

Such position has been emphasized also by Dr. Leslie (CCCCC). He explained the symbolic role of the event as a landmark and milestone. First, cooperation with Italy is an important example of institutional cooperation in dealing with climate change. Second, collaboration in addressing adaptation to climate change and develop joint programs show how cooperation on climate change should be realized. Finally, Caribbean countries could learn from what would be implemented in the Mediterranean area.

Climate and economic vulnerability in developing countries has been analyzed from different prospective.

Dr. Trotz (CCCCC) presented the impacts of climate change in the Caribbean region. The bottom line is that they are already experiencing climate change effects with 2008 recording one of the most devastating hurricane season. The IPCC has classified this region among the most vulnerable regions and climate change impacts will exacerbate this vulnerability. The future for the Caribbean looks drier and warmer, hurricanes becoming more intense, more extreme events such as droughts and floods and related stresses. In particular, negative impacts are expected on the following areas: agriculture, sea level rise, water resources, renewable energy, and land use.

On regard to economic evaluation, Prof. Carlo Carraro (CMCC) spoke about the economic assessment of climate change impacts.
Starting from two different climate scenarios (+1.2 and +3.1°C by 2050 compared to 2001) , the CMCC has assessed the economic value of different physical impacts in the Mediterranean region using a general equilibrium, sectoral model (ICES), including impacts on health, sea level rise, tourism, agriculture, energy use. These impacts affect labor and land productivity, energy demand, health expenditure and tourism flows. Major negative impacts are in Africa and South-East Asia, whereas some developed regions such as Northern Europe could gain from climate change. Market adjustment is already a first form of adaptation to climate change. Indeed, for all regions the final impact on the economy will be lower comparing to direct economic impacts of climate change. For example, in the case of agriculture market adaptation, via changes in relative prices and yields, can reduce impacts. A similar conclusion can be observed in the health sector and in the tourism industry. Still there are regions that will suffer a lot despite market-driven adaptation. Developed countries (Europe) can adapt easier than less developed regions (North Africa and Middle East), and therefore policy-driven adaptation and cooperation on adaptation still plays a crucial role.

Finally, Dr. Emanuele Massetti (CMCC) presented mitigation issues for the Euro-Mediterranean area, including Europe, Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Results have been obtained using the WITCH model. MENA has a fast-growing population, surpassing Europe in 2045. Emission catching-up is faster in absolute values, but not per-capita. Stabilization at 535 co2-eq in 2100 would require emissions peak in 2015 in Europe and a bit later in MENA (2025). Per-capita reduction must be much faster in Europe than MENA. But how can we reduce emissions? Decarbonization of the developed world and improvement of energy efficiency in the developing countries are the answers proposed. In particular, Europe is already efficient in terms of energy use, thus, it should improve the carbon content of its energy decarbonizing energy supply. On the contrary, in MENA there are more opportunities to improve energy efficiency because existing inefficiencies. Incremental investments would be of the order of 100 billion per decade. Indeed, it represents more a managerial challenge instead of a financial challenge. Technology is the key answer to change the energy mix: adopting already existing technologies and investing for the development of new options. Finally, a stable and credible long-term signals are essential. One proposal presented is the introduction of a Global Carbon Tax on the top of a cap-and-trade system. This could lead to the progressive decarbonisation of the world stimulating the technology innovation in developed countries and the improvement of energy efficiency in the developing world as well as addressing investments in low-zero technologies.
Cooperation of developing and developed countries such as the one established between CCCCC and CMCC could be the starting point in fighting climate change impacts.

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