Climate change is significantly altering the Italian mountain landscape, resulting in shifts in species composition, the disappearance of certain species, and their migration to higher altitudes, where the air is cooler. Recent research conducted by CMCC underscores the vulnerability of specific Italian regions to these changes, highlighting the critical importance of comprehending and addressing this issue.

The climate crisis is poised to have far-reaching effects on terrestrial ecosystems, and mountain forests are no exception. Climate scientists expect profound, long-term changes in species composition and a notable upward shift in the tree line along mountain ranges, which will have profound repercussions on mountain ecosystem biodiversity.

A research led by a group of scientists affiliated with CMCC and the National Biodiversity Future Center (NBFC) was recently published in Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, delving into the potential impacts of climate change on native forest species. Gaining a deeper understanding of these impacts and their implications for mountain landscapes and biodiversity is imperative for the development of effective conservation and management strategies.

The researchers conducted a comprehensive analysis of forests in five vulnerable mountain regions in Italy, meticulously mapping and projecting their future configurations. Their findings paint a transformative picture of these ecosystems, rendering them nearly unrecognizable in the future. As a consequence of climate change, the trees that currently grace these landscapes may either vanish from their present locations or migrate uphill by several hundred meters.

“The results we have obtained exhibit significant variation not only across the diverse mountain regions under consideration but also among various species. However, species such as the silver fir and European beech stand out as especially vulnerable since they are projected to experience a contraction in their suitable altitudinal range,” said CMCC’s Sergio Noce, lead author of the research. “Among the five regions studied, the northern and north-eastern Apennines were at the greatest risk, with all present species of tree vulnerable to a possible reduction in their suitable area.”

The authors used very high resolution future climate data produced by CMCC, with a specific focus on the Alps and Apennines, which are Italy’s most significant mountain regions. CMCC played a pivotal role in this study, not only by modeling forestry data but also by creating high-resolution climate data. Consequently, CMCC was responsible for both data production and the analysis of potential impacts on forest ecosystems.

“I believe our work emphasizes the complexity of climate change impacts on biodiversity and shows how comprehensive strategies are vital to tackle such impacts,” said CMCC’s Cristina Cipriano, a co-author of the study. “Utilizing high-resolution climate data and taking into account various factors and scenarios are all crucial for assessing species vulnerability and adopting informed conservation efforts amidst climate change.”

This study falls within the scope of the activities of the recently established National Biodiversity Future Center, in which CMCC plays a significant role. Leveraging the available data and resources, the research team was able to furnish valuable, detailed insights into the repercussions of climate change on mountain forests, both at a national and local level.

“Our study confirms once again how necessary it is to remain, or in some cases return, to our forests to undertake sustainable forest management policies throughout our territory,” said Noce. “Moreover, in regions where the risk of biodiversity loss appears most evident, such as in the mountain top areas, it is particularly urgent to mitigate the current strong anthropic pressure.”