Habitat change, invasive species, resource over-exploitation, and pollution were
identified as the most severe drivers leading to biodiversity loss globally . However, as temperatures continue to rise over this century, climate change will become increasingly important among the major drivers of habitat and species loss. Yunnan, China, is an area renowned for biodiversity; climate change is likely to exacerbate the impacts of ongoing processes, such as deforestation, increasing fragmentation of  forests, land use changes, etc, potentially undermining current land use planning, conservation efforts, and effectiveness of existing protected areas.
In a study recently published on Biological Conservation, a team of scientists (among them, CMCC researcher A. Trabucco from IAFES Division) used a multi-model approach to predict and understand the spatial implications of projected climate conditions across  Yunnan, China, by the year 2050.
The results highlighted that the great majority of protected area will experience novel bioclimatic conditions by 2050. The spatial displacement and upwards shifting of bioclimatic conditions indicates a prolonged period of significant ecological perturbation, which will have a major impact upon the conservation effectiveness of the established protected area network, without concerted conservation efforts to integrate climate change into both planning and management, and to proactively mitigate habitat lost to changed bioclimatic conditions.

The abstract of the paper:

Climate change is projected to impact on biodiversity conservation and the effectiveness of the existing protected area network in biologically rich Yunnan Province of southwestern China. A statistically derived bioclimatic stratification is used to analyze projected bioclimatic conditions across Yunnan by the year 2050. The multi-model approach is based on an ensemble of CIMP5 Earth System Models, downscaled to a set of 1 km2 resolution climate projections (n = 63), covering four representative concentration pathways (RCP). Nine bioclimatic zones, composed of 33 strata, are currently found within Yunnan. By 2050, the mean elevation of these zones is projected to shift upwards by an average of 269 m, with large increases in area of the warmer zones, and decreases in the colder, higher elevation zones. Temperate and alpine areas of high biodiversity value are at risk. Displacement in the geographic distribution of bioclimatic conditions is likely to have substantial impact across all bioclimatic zones, vegetation types, and habitats currently found in Yunnan. On average, across all RCPs, 45% of the total combined area of the protected area network will shift to a completely different zone, with 83% shifting to a different strata. The great majority of protected area will experience substantially changed, spatially shifted, and novel bioclimatic conditions by 2050. The spatial displacement and upwards shifting of bioclimatic conditions indicates a prolonged period of significant ecological perturbation, which will have a major impact upon the conservation effectiveness of the established protected area network, and other conservation efforts across Yunnan.

Read the integral version of the paper:
Zomer R., Xu  J., Wang M., Trabucco A., Li Z.
Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Effectiveness of the Existing Protected Area Network for Biodiversity Conservation within Yunnan Province, China
2015, Biological Conservation, 184,335-345, DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2015.01.031