FERS School
9–13 November 2026 | Bertinoro, Italy
More information and application
Scenarios are not predictions of the future: they are tools to explore the space of possible decisions and their consequences. Every pathway to 1.5°C (and most 2°C pathways) produced by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) now relies on some volume of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) – whether through afforestation and reforestation, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), direct air capture (DAC), enhanced weathering, or ocean-based approaches. Yet the amount, timing, technology mix, and geographical distribution of CDR deployment differ enormously across models and scenarios, with direct consequences for land use, biodiversity, water, food security, and the rights of indigenous and local communities.
This winter school unpacks how CDR enters IAMs and shapes the scenario space used by the IPCC and climate policy more broadly. Day by day, participants move from foundations to critique: an introduction to IAM structure and the main modelling frameworks; how CDR options are represented and constrained within them; the drivers behind scenario diversity, including overshoot pathways and their reversibility assumptions; and finally, quantitative and qualitative methods for ex post assessment of scenarios, from IAMC database diagnostics to case studies on biodiversity and land-rights impacts. Sessions combine lectures from modelling and policy experts, hands-on exercises with scenario data, and guided discussion of recent discussions about equity of CDR burden-sharing, feasibility and sustainability limits, and overshoot risk.
The course targets PhD students, early-career researchers, and practitioners who want to move beyond treating CDR as a single aggregate number in a chart, and instead understand the assumptions, uncertainties, and normative choices embedded in scenario-based climate research.
This initiative is part of the Future Earth Research School (FERS), an international school entirely focused on environmental sustainability and climate change coordinated by CMCC Foundation, Advanced Training and Education Center (ATEC). FERS will offer a strategic overview on how to model our climate system and deal with future global challenges, building a fertile ground for innovation and new research pathways.
Organized and funded in the framework of UPTAKE Project.
UPTAKE is funded by the European Union. Views and opinions expressed are, however those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or CINEA. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.