CMCC Talks
6 May 2026, 12:00 CEST
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Speaker: Simone Beltramino, CMCC
Moderator: Guido Rianna, CMCC
Understanding the future land potential for global oil crop production is crucial for ensuring food security and assessing possible pressures on land use and ecosystems. We developed spatially explicit maps of the potential distribution of four major oil crops—soybean, rapeseed, sunflower, and oil palm—to meet the demand of a projected global population of 9.2 billion by 2050. Using an ad hoc distribution algorithm, we evaluate potential land-use changes and associated pressures on land systems, including carbon losses and impacts on biodiversity. Our results identify countries facing significant risks of ecosystem loss as well as regions potentially exposed to supply insecurity relative to the expected production of oil crops.