EIEE Webinar-Seminar
17 December, h 12:00 CET
To join the webinar, register here
Speaker:
Marco Pangallo, CENTAI
Moderator:
Francesco Granella, CMCC
Flooding represents one of the most frequent and damaging natural hazards in Italy, yet its indirect effects on the housing market remain poorly understood. This study examines how flood risk perception influences property values and how these effects may evolve under future climate scenarios. Using data from 550,000 mortgages across Italy, the analysis estimates the current impact of flood risk on housing prices. Results show that flood exposure depresses property values primarily in regions repeatedly affected by floods, whereas individual events have no measurable effect, highlighting the role of historical memory in shaping risk perception. Building on these findings, an agent-based model (ABM) integrated with climate projections simulates future housing market dynamics. The projections indicate that by 2050, properties in flood-prone areas are likely to experience further depreciation, while properties in safer areas may gain value, potentially reshaping spatial housing demand.