RECEIPT Webinar
30 November 2022 – h 14.30 pm CET
LINK to ZOOM Registration page

Speakers
Rohit Ghosh, University of Reading

Moderator
Raed Hamed, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU Amsterdam

Discussant
Julia Mindlin, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos

Abstract
Being home to about a third of the world population, the tropics and its future climate have a huge socio-economic importance. The climate models project large uncertainty in the future precipitation over many tropical land regions. This uncertainty could stem from the uncertainty in the evolution of its drivers, e.g the tropical Pacific Oceanic temperature. Here, applying the storyline method on 38 CMIP6 models, it is shown how differently the tropical land rainfall would evolve with different evolution in tropical Pacific Ocean temperature. The method is explained focusing on the Maritime continent region, where the future drying over the key regions for forest fires is shown to depend on the level of future basin-wide equatorial Pacific Ocean warming. The storylines of the future evolution in west African and south American rainfall are also shown based on the uncertainty in tropical Pacific as well as other oceanic drivers.

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