This seminar has been scheduled at CMCC/INGV in Bologna, via Franceschini 31 (Ground Floor, Auditorium – h 11.00 am).
Lecturer
Prakash Jha
CMCC, Bologna, Italy
Abstract:
In this study we are exploring the potential applicability of seasonal
climate forecasts to the prediction of rice yield at the Terai region
(Nepal, N. India). The seasonal climate forecasts from two
state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems (SPS) are used as input to
a dynamic crop model calibrated to the Terai region. This study has two
parts: In the first part we perform an evaluation of the performance of
the two SPSs in simulating the climatological characteristics of the
Indian Monsoon and predicting its interannual variability. In
particular, we are comparing the performance of the CMCC-SPS.v1.5 with
the NCEP-CFSv2, with a focus on the above-mentioned area. In the second
part, the DSSAT CERES-Rice model is first calibrated and validated with
experimental data from agricultural research stations in the area of
interest. The skill of the crop model is first evaluated using observed
meteo data from the ERA-Interim reanalysis, precipitation data sets and
local weather stations. Then, the crop model is run in hincast mode
using the seasonal hindcasts of the two SPSs, optionally downscaled with
statistical techniques. Preliminary findings indicate that the overall
skill (yield forecasts) is limited by the skill and the biases of the
seasonal forecasts.
Bologna, INGV, Ground Floor, Auditorium - INGV, Ground Floor, Auditorium, Bologna -
3 Jul 2015
Contacts Organized by
- CMCC - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change