October 21, 2021 – h 05.00 – 6.00 pm CEST
Speaker: Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Department of Atmospheric Sciences,
University of Washington
Moderator: Stefano Materia, CMCC Foundation
As Arctic sea ice has declined, interest in sea ice forecasts has grown, motivated by a range of socio-economic factors. In this talk, I will review the progress in developing quasi-operational sea ice forecasts, the challenges that remain, and opportunities for further forecast development and improvement. I will discuss the evolution of the Sea Ice Outlook, an annual sea ice forecasting effort initiated in 2008 under the auspices of the Sea Ice Prediction Network that collects seasonal summer sea ice forecasts from a range of international contributors, the majority of which submit forecasts from dynamical or statistical models. I will discuss the overall skill in these forecasts, the factors that limit forecast skill, and the prospects for future improvement.
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Fondazione CMCC – Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti climatici