Improving short-term forecasts of the Arctic ocean-sea ice-atmosphere coupled system

CMCC Webinar Series on the Arctic system
and its predictability
September 9, 2021 – h. 5.30 pm. CEST

Speaker: Amy Solomon, University of Colorado and NOAA/PSL

Moderator: Dorotea Iovino, CMCC Foundation

Abstract:

This model intercomparison uses observations taken during MOSAiC in wintertime (here defined as the period without solar radiation, 15 Oct 2019 – 15 Mar 2020) to evaluate coupled processes unique to the Arctic, such as the representation of liquid-bearing clouds at cold temperatures; the representation of a persistent stable boundary layer, and the limiting impact of atmospheric variability on sea ice by snow. Short-term forecasts are used in this study to identify potential errors in the representation of “fast” processes, such as cloud feedbacks and surface fluxes, that cause biases in climate model projections of Arctic climate change. The relative importance of these processes in the models is studied from the perspective of the surface energy balance and the net impact of surface energy budget terms on surface temperature tendencies and sea ice growth.
Process diagnostics designed using observations of snow/sea-ice characteristics (from IMBs), the atmospheric structure (from soundings), cloud characteristics (based on radar/lidar), and surface fluxes (from the 3 separate atmospheric flux stations and the 23-meter tower) are used to identify systematic biases. Currently forecasts from nine experimental and operational forecast systems are included in the intercomparison, additional forecasts will be included as they become available.


Watch the video:


HOW TO PARTICIPATE

The webinar will be broadcasted via Zoom.
Please, click on the following link for registration: https://bit.ly/Arctic0909

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.


ORGANIZED BY:

Fondazione CMCC – Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti climatici



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