February 9, 2021 – h. 12:30 pm CET
Giacomo Cacciapaglia, CNRS, Institut de Physique des 2 Infinis de Lyon (IP2I)
Gianandrea Mannarini, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change Foundation (CMCC)
Pandemics are becoming a recurring threat to our global society. The COVID-19, still raging in most regions of the world, has already disrupted our way of living, and our societies have paid an immense toll in terms of human lives and economic impact. Understanding the spreading dynamics of the disease is crucial for designing an optimal strategy to limit the damages of the current and future pandemics. Human mobility is an important factor in this endeavour. In this talk, we will present a new framework that allows to effectively model the increase in the number of infected cases in various regions of the world. We also shed new lights on the wave pattern observed in COVID-19, and on the role played by human mobility. As a case study, we will present some new results on the impact of maritime passenger transport for the emergence of a second wave in Croatia. This model successfully predicted the insurgence of a second wave in Europe in September/October 2020. The role of vaccinations, which are currently being administered, will also be briefly discussed. The new insights presented here are important for decision makers and in informing the general public about the risks ahead of us, not only for COVID-19 but also as a legacy for future ones.
Speaker’s short bio
Dr. Giacomo Cacciapaglia is a CNRS Senior Researcher at the Institut des 2 Infinis de Lyon, France. He obtained his PhD at the Scuola Normale Superiore di Pisa and held postdoctoral positions at Cornell University, NY, and the University of California at Davis. His expertise is in particle physics, theory and phenomenology. Recently, he has pioneered a new approach to study the diffusion dynamics of infectious pandemics, like COVID-19.
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In collaboration with the CMCC Foundation