SEA-LIMITHS investigates the impacts and economic consequences of sea level rise on sandy beaches and beach hospitality losses owing to beach erosion and flooding in two economically important Italian coastal areas, Veneto, and Emilia-Romagna. Combining sandy beaches with a proposed rich dataset based on machine learning and artificial intelligence, user-generated data is matched to the land cover/land use map to separate the hospitality sectors (accommodation, food and drink, sports, and leisure) in order to assess economic losses in the hospitality industry from 2050 to 2100 using representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5).

CMCC role
SEA-LIMITHS is a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Postdoctoral Fellowship Project. CMCC co-hosts the project together with Ca’Foscari University and offers scientific supervision to the Fellow, Dr. Vilane Goncalves Sales.

Activities
The main activities will involve developing a geo-spatial database of sandy beaches and coastal hospitality businesses, modeling sea level rise impacts and damages, calculating adaptation costs, and simulating macroeconomic effects.

Expected results
The project expects to generate new insights into the potential economic impacts of sea level rise on coastal tourism in two regions of Italy. By mapping vulnerable sandy beaches and coastal hospitality businesses, modeling damages under climate change scenarios, and estimating adaptation costs, the research aims to quantify the costs and risks for the tourism sector. The macroeconomic modeling will shed light on how beach loss could affect wider regional economies. The results are intended to inform adaptation strategies and investments to increase the resilience of coastal tourism. Overall, the project seeks to advance scientific understanding of climate change risks and support evidence-based policymaking on coastal management in Italy. The interdisciplinary approach combining environmental and economic analysis with innovative modeling techniques is expected to produce novel, actionable findings on minimizing climate impacts on tourism-dependent coastal communities.

Partners
Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Italy