Climate Scenarios for Italy

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The expected climate for Italy in the coming decades told by climate models: sixty maps, ten indicators, two scenarios, three periods until 2100. The CMCC Foundation publishes the climate scenarios for Italy. A work in progress, the result of ongoing research that keeps improving the definition and detail of data to be made available to the public.

A snapshot of the expected climate for Italy in the coming decades is presented in a series of maps available on the website of the CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change. Much will depend on the choices that will be made to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Much will depend on whether the international community will succeed in containing the temperature rise and the consequences of this increase at different geographic scales.

These maps represent a tool available to anyone wishing to learn more about the results of scientific research. The climate data published in the maps complete the information contained in the Report “Risk Analysis. Climate change in Italy ”. They are presented in a usable form that allows users to navigate between 10 climate indicators, two different scenarios, and three periods (2021-2050, 2041-2070, 2071-2100).

“The choice of these indicators and scenarios is based on the requests we have received in recent years from researchers and public and private bodies that study the impacts of climate change on Italy” – explain Paola Mercogliano and Giuliana Barbato, who deal with the development and application of climate models on a local scale at CMCC. “This is a first selection that we plan to enrich in the coming months, always based on our research activities and on the interaction with the community that uses such data. Furthermore, we are currently working on the development of new simulations with a higher resolution. This will allows, for example, a better characterization of urban areas”.

The climate scenarios for Italy are the result of scientific research that used the COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model in a particular configuration specific to Italy, specially developed by the CMCC Foundation. The published maps will be updated in the future, as they are to be understood as the result of continuous research aimed at improving the definition of the data produced. This process will provide even more advanced support in the evaluation of the extreme events expected for the next decades.

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