Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have significant impacts not only on marine ecosystems but also on the economy and society. In a new paper, involving CMCC researcher Simona Masina, an international team of scientists from leading research institutes reviews the most recent and up to date developments in the field. From the three-dimensional structure and evolution of these extreme events, to their drivers, future projections, and predictability, MHW research is crucial in shaping and supporting effective adaptation and mitigation strategies.

A new paper, published in Nature Communications Earth & Environment, involving CMCC researcher Simona Masina alongside an international team of researchers from leading institutes across the globe reviews the state of knowledge on MHWs and how to make further progress on predicting and projecting MHWs and their impacts.

“Given that MHWs can occur anytime, anywhere, concerted efforts to improve our global capacity to observe the state of the ocean both at the surface and in the subsurface are needed to properly monitor MHWs and their cascading impacts, as well as to constrain ocean reanalyses and assess model performance,” says CMCC researcher and co-author of the paper Simona Masina.

The study offers future perspectives from the international scientific community on the main challenges related to the understanding and prediction of MHWs. It also outlines how a more robust assessment of MHW predictability will require additional investigations to identify large-scale drivers of MHWs in different regions and during different seasons, as well as their interplay in altering local processes responsible for MHW growth, evolution and persistence.

“In order to provide forecasts that are useful for stakeholders, greater focus is needed on models that are able to resolve processes occurring at scales relevant for marine risk assessments,” says Masina.

Although there are numerous studies discussing MHW impacts, this area of research is still evolving. For example, some long-lasting effects are only just starting to emerge and a deeper exploration of the ways in which MHWs influence the Earth’s carbon and radiation budget also requires further analysis.

Monitoring, detecting and predicting climate extremes at different time scales is a research priority at CMCC, and recent publications and projects led by the institute and focused on the Mediterranean region have positioned it as one of the key players in this field of research.

CMCC is working on improving MHW prediction through the use of numerical models, data assimilation techniques and data-driven methods to forecast them. This includes efforts within Copernicus Marine Service and Copernicus Climate Change Service to provide daily sea surface and sub-surface temperature data and other ocean variables  that help track and predict marine heatwaves at different time scales across the Mediterranean and other regions of the global ocean.

“Marine heatwaves (MHWs) profoundly affect marine ecosystems across the Mediterranean Sea and in many other regions of the world’s oceans,” says Masina. “The ocean warming that is projected by climate models to become larger and widespread by the end of the century exacerbates naturally-occurring temperature excursions, resulting in increased frequency, intensity and duration of extreme temperatures. Gaining deeper insight into MHWs and their effects is crucial for shaping and supporting effective adaptation strategies.”

For more information:

Capotondi, A., Rodrigues, R.R., Sen Gupta, A. et al. A global overview of marine heatwaves in a changing climate. Commun Earth Environ 5, 701 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01806-9