CMCC researcher Raniero Della Peruta’s study on how climate change is affecting coffee yields has been awarded third place in the 2026 “Giampiero Maracchi” Paper Award by the Italian Association for Agrometeorology (AIAM).

Coffee is one of the world’s most cherished agricultural commodities, yet climate change is projected to negatively affect production, including through reduced yields. The recent paper, Projecting trends of arabica coffee yield under climate change: A process-based modelling study at continental scale, tackles this challenge by identifying climate risks and assessing the adaptation potential of different agronomic practices.

The results indicate that potential yields could decrease by 23–35% in Latin America and by 16–21% in Africa, depending on the warming scenario considered, with overall coffee yield probably decreasing in the next decades, even under the most optimistic climate projections.

Furthermore, yield is predicted to decrease more in areas where air temperatures are higher, i.e., lowlands. However, in spite of the general decline, yield is predicted to increase in areas at higher altitudes (approximately above 800 metres above sea level). If predictions are confirmed, this pattern could lead to a shift of the most suitable areas for coffee production toward higher elevations, with important implications for land use change, ecosystem functions, and biodiversity conservation.

The study also examines how increased shade tree density by 50 % (compared to a baseline representing a plausible regional average) improves productivity and counteracts the negative impact of climate change on coffee yields at some sites; highlighting both its potential as an adaptation measure and the need for further research on site-specific solutions and management options.

The study’s recognition with third place in the 2026 “Giampiero Maracchi” Paper Award underscores its scientific significance and contribution to understanding climate risks for coffee production.

For more information:

Raniero Della Peruta, Valentina Mereu, Donatella Spano, Serena Marras, Rémi Vezy, Antonio Trabucco, Projecting trends of arabica coffee yield under climate change: A process-based modelling study at continental scale, Agricultural Systems, Volume 227, 2025, 104353, ISSN 0308-521X, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104353