International media coverage is focusing on the probability of a strong El Niño developing later this year and its consequences for global climate. But, what does this mean for Europe? Past cases have brought changing rainfall patterns and temperature anomalies, although any effects from this El Niño will not manifest themselves until the later stages of 2026. With Europe already facing heatwaves, longer-lasting heat and harder-hitting extremes due to climate change, we look at how this may amplify or reshape impacts in the region.

All eyes are on El Niño, which is expected in the second half of the year with widespread impacts, particularly in the tropical Pacific. However, what is less well documented is how El Niño will impact the European continent and Mediterranean region, particularly in light of the extremes already brought about by climate change.

“When it comes to the Mediterranean, El Niño’s impact is indirect,” says CMCC researcher and expert in seasonal forecasts, Leone Cavicchia, as he outlines how it has led to shifts in rainfall patterns and influenced winter circulation over Europe in the past.

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