L’area mediterranea è stata identificata da tempo come uno dei più importanti hotspots di cambiamento climatico, ovvero come una delle regioni più sensibili e vulnerabile ai suoi effetti. La regione è popolata da oltre 500 milioni di abitanti, distribuiti in circa 30 Paesi in Africa, Asia ed Europa; comprendere la variabilità climatica dell’area mediterranea ha quindi anche notevoli implicazioni sociali.
Un nuovo studio delle Divisioni SERC e ANS pubblicato di recente nel bollettino dell’American Meteorological Society illustra un innovativo sistema multimodello sviluppato nell’ambito del progetto CIRCE (Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment), all’interno del Sesto Programma Quadro (FP6).

L’abstract dell’articolo:
In this article, the authors describe an innovative multimodel system developed within the Climate Change and Impact Research: The Mediterranean Environment (CIRCE) European Union (EU) Sixth Framework Programme (FP6) project and used to produce simulations of the Mediterranean Sea regional climate. The models include high-resolution Mediterranean Sea components, which allow assessment of the role of the basin and in particular of the air–sea feedbacks in the climate of the region.
The models have been integrated from 1951 to 2050, using observed radiative forcings during the first half of the simulation period and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario during the second half.
The projections show a substantial warming (about 1.5°–2°C) and a significant decrease of precipitation (about 5%) in the region for the scenario period. However, locally the changes might be even larger. In the same period, the projected surface net heat loss decreases, leading to a weaker cooling of the Mediterranean Sea by the atmosphere, whereas the water budget appears to increase, leading the basin to lose more water through its surface than in the past. Overall, these results are consistent with the findings of previous scenario simulations, such as the Prediction of Regional Scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate Change Risks and Effects (PRUDENCE), Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES), and phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). The agreement suggests that these findings are robust to substantial changes in the configuration of the models used to make the simulations.
Finally, the models produce a 2021–50 mean steric sea level rise that ranges between +7 and +12 cm, with respect to the period of reference.

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