Overshoot: challenges and choices after we exceed 1.5°C

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CMCC Lectures
18 September 2025, 11:00 CEST
To join the Lecture, register here


The world is about to exceed 1.5°C of global warming — a milestone that raises a critical question: is it still possible to “keep 1.5°C alive” by bringing temperatures back down in the future? In this lecture, Andy Reisinger, a globally recognized expert in bridging the gap between climate sciences and policy, will explore the challenges and choices of the so-called ‘overshoot’ pathways, where global warming exceeds a given threshold for a period of time before being brought back to or below that level.

Dr. Reisinger will discuss how the risks from climate change might evolve in such an exceedance and return scenario and why a world that returns to 1.5°C is still a much more vulnerable and inequitable world than if that level of warming had been avoided. The lecture will also consider the additional emissions reduction measures that could make such a return possible during the second half of the 21st century, as well as the barriers and enabling factors that could support such a prospect. The event will offer a chance to reflect on how researchers and decision-makers might engage in the difficult but necessary conversations on how to navigate this overshoot world.

Dive into one of the most pressing and complex topics in climate science today. Be part of the conversation on how to shape a future that still strives for resilience, equity, and meaningful climate action.


Speaker: Andy Reisinger, Institute for Climate, Energy and Disaster Solutions, Australian National University

Discussant: Soheil Shayegh, CMCC

Moderator: Anna Pirani, CMCC


Andy Resinger is an independent consultant based in New Zealand, specialising in the science-policy interface of climate change. He was vice-chair of Working Group III (Mitigation) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) during its 6th Assessment cycle, and previously served as coordinating lead author for the IPCC focusing on impacts and adaptation for Australia and New Zealand.

He currently is also one of eight Commissioners on the New Zealand Climate Change Commission, an independent expert body providing advice to the government on matters related to adaptation and mitigation. However, he will speak on overshoot in his role as subject matter expert only, not as Commissioner.

Previous roles include serving as Principal Scientist, Climate Change, at the Ministry for the Environment, and as Deputy Director (International) of the New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre.


The event is part of the CMCC Lectures webinar series, which presents frontier topics and solutions in climate sciences and action, through the insights of leading experts. The series provides a platform for distinguished scientists to showcase their cutting-edge research and engage in dialogue with peers and stakeholders.



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