Predicting Arctic sea ice from seasonal to multi-decadal timescales

15 September, 2021, 4.30 pm CEST

Speaker: Marika Holland, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research

Moderator: Simona Masina, CMCC Foundation


During the last forty years, Arctic sea ice cover has declined dramatically due in large part to anthropogenic forcing. Climate models project continued ice loss for the future with instances of September ice-free summers likely by the mid-21st century. As a consequence of the changing sea ice, and increased Arctic marine access, there has been growing interest in predicting sea ice conditions on seasonal and longer timescales. Here I discuss the factors that provide predictability of Arctic sea ice conditions on seasonal to multi-decadal timescales. This includes the role of long-lived ice thickness and ocean heat content anomalies as sources of ice area predictability and how that predictability differs across seasons. I also discuss how initial value predictability characteristics that are important for seasonal forecasts are likely to change in a warming climate.

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Fondazione CMCC – Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti climatici

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