In un articolo pubblicato di recente sulla rivista ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, un gruppo di autori (tra questi, i ricercatori della Fondazione CMCC E. Bucchignani e M. P. Manzi della Divisione REHMI ) propone un metodo per identificare quelle aree in cui condizioni climatiche estreme potrebbero intensificare i processi di desertificazione e carenza di precipitazioni. La procedura proposta, basata sull’analisi delle proiezioni climatiche ricavate da simulazioni regionali ad alta risoluzione, è stata testata nell’area di Ouagadougou, in Burkina Faso.
This work is aimed to propose a methodology for the identification of areas for which extreme climatological conditions may intensify aridity processes and rainfall deficiency. The proposed procedure, which is based on the analysis of climate projections derived from high-resolution regional simulations, is composed of three main elements. First, extreme temperature, extreme precipitation, and extreme dry periods (in terms of consecutive dry days) are modeled using extreme value theory. Second, an aridity index is used as a proxy of long-term processes leading to aridity. Third, clustering techniques are used to group zones with similar climatic parameters. In this way, areas with the more extreme climate conditions are identified. Possible effects due to selected climate-change scenarios are considered by analyzing possible nonstationary conditions in extreme events and by performing calculations in both a historical period and a projection period (where different scenarios are considered). An application of the proposed procedure is implemented in an area around Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. From the analyses, it emerged that the eastern part of the case study area will experience both large rainfall deficit and the highest extreme temperatures. Those two aspects, combined with a potential water demand increase (due to the increasing of number of inhabitants), may favor the intensification of the aridity processes.
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Garcia-Aristizabal A., Bucchignani E., Manzi M. P.
Patterns in Climate-Related Parameters as Proxy for Rainfall Deficiency and Aridity: Application to Burkina Faso
2016, ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering, ISSN (online): 2376-7642, DOI: 10.1061/AJRUA6.0000860