CMCC Seminar “Simulated vs. Empirical Weather Responsiveness of Crop Yields: U.S. Evidence and Implications for the Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change”

CMCC Division: ECIP

Malcolm Mistry
Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC – ECIP Division), Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Dept. of Economics, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice

Enrico Scoccimarro
Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC – CSP Division)

Francesco Bosello
Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC – ECIP Division), Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), University Statale of Milan

12:30 – Opening Address, Antonio Navarra – CMCC President
12:33 – Welcome and intro, Francesco Bosello – ECIP Division Director
12:35 Speaker’s talk, Malcolm Mistry – ECIP Division
13:05 – Discussant’s comments, Enrico Scoccimarro – CSP Division
13:10 – Q&A 

The seminar will Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are the workhorse of assessments of the agricultural impacts of climate change. Yet the changes in crop yields projected by different models in response to the same meteorological forcing can differ substantially. Through an inter-method comparison, we provide a first glimpse into the origins and implications of this divergence—both among GGCMs and between GGCMs and historical observations. We examine yields of rainfed maize, wheat, and soybeans simulated by six GGCMs as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project-Fast Track (ISIMIP-FT) exercise, comparing 1972-2004 hindcast yields over the coterminous United States (U.S.) against U.S. Dept. of Agriculture (USDA) time series for >1,000 counties. We estimate reduced-form econometric models of crop yield responses to temperature and precipitation exposures for both GGCMs and observations. GGCMs have difficulty reproducing the observed distribution of percentage yield anomalies, and exhibit aggregate responses that show yields to be more weather-sensitive than in the observational record—not only in response to adverse exposures to extreme high temperature or low precipitation, but over the entire range of heat and moisture conditions. This disparity is largely attributable to heterogeneity in GGCMs’ responses, as opposed to uncertainty in historical weather forcings, and is responsible for widely divergent impacts of climate on future crop yields.

This presentation is based on a paper co-authored by Malcolm N. Mistry1,2, Ian Sue Wing3, and Enrica De Cian2.

1 Dept. of Economics, Università Ca’ Foscari, Venice, Italy.
2 Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC),Venice, Italy
3 Dept. of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston MA, USA

Working language: English

The seminar will take place at the CMCC premises in Venice, Isola San Giorgio Maggiore (registration to attend the event in Venice is not required).

The seminar will be broadcasted via Go-to-Webinar
Please, click on the following link for registration:
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.

When and Where

Venezia, h.12:30 pm, CMCC, San Giorgio Maggiore - CMCC, San Giorgio Maggiore, Venezia, h.12:30 pm -

31 Jan 2017

Contacts Organized by
  • CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

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