The project responds to the C3S Invitation to Tender (ITT) Ref. C3S2_375: Development of C3S Decadal Prediction Service, which has been conceived as a continuation of the C3S service C3S_34c: Prototype system for decadal climate predictions (2019–2021). Even though C3S_34c amounted to significant progress in these direction, it did not cover all required steps towards operational implementation of multi-system decadal predictions and derived forecast products, e.g., leaving gaps in suitable data-encoding standards, the continuous provision of new forecasts and in rendering such forecasts directly usable through the application of state-of-the-art post-processing methods and the production of general and tailored products made available to the community on the CDS. The present contract C3S2_375_CMCC, aims at consolidating further progress towards these objectives.
33 months from 01/09/2025 to 31/05/2028
General aims
The project will provide solutions to the following key aspects:
(i) annual provision of operational-quality decadal forecasts produced with five state-of-the-art prediction systems, each delivering a large ensemble and covering fundamental climate variables;
(ii) delivery of a software package for implementing suitable data encoding and ensuring data standards compliant with general CDS (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/) requirements and with common practices and associated developments by DCPP (https://www.wcrp-climate.org/dcp-overview) and the LC-ADCP (https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/wmolc/) ;
(iii) development and delivery of a software package designed to perform fundamental post- processing on the forecast output data, enhancing the overall quality of the predictions, as well as applying on-call post-processing methods meeting specific requirements;
(iv) in collaboration with selected end-users committed to follow this service, co-definition and development of decadal prediction products tailored to their needs, including interactive software solutions;
(iv) preparation for and demonstration of readiness to respond to the event of a major volcanic eruption that would reduce the utility of the last operational forecasts issued before this event.
CMCC role:
CMCC, as the primary contractor, coordinates all the work conducted under this contract. The contract team (consortium) also includes BSC, DWD, MetOffice, NERSC and the UiB, who lead different work packages.
Activities
WP1- “Data standards, encoding and quality control” regards the implementation of suitable data encoding and ensures data standards compliant with general CDS requirements and with common practices and associated developments by DCPP and by the LC-ADCP. This work package will deliver suitable recommendations and a software package aimed at being implemented on the CDS by the C3S technical personnel.
WP2-“Development and evaluation of post-processing methods” deals with the development and delivery of a software package designed to perform essential post-processing on the forecast output data (e.g., bias-correction accounting for model drifts) and general forecast evaluation, based on the respective hindcasts, as well as applying further on-call post-processing methods to meet specific user requirements related to a number of case studies (WP4).
In WP3, “Operational delivery of decadal forecasts” operational-quality decadal forecasts produced with five state-of-the-art systems, each delivering a large-ensemble and covering essential climate variables, will be produced and delivered. In addition, a suitably perturbed forecast will be produced demonstrating the ability to respond to an unforeseen major volcanic eruption in a timely and meaningful manner.
In WP4, -“Development and evaluation of post-processing methods”, using output from the previous work packages and in collaboration with selected end-users committed to the development of this service, decadal prediction products tailored to their needs will be developed, including interactive tools (Jupyter Notebooks).
Expected results
The project aims to develop and implement a pre-operational, multi-model decadal prediction system based on the forecasting systems of leading European centers (BSC, CMCC, DWD, ECMWF, Met Office, NERSC, and UiB)
Partners
- BSC – CENTRO NACIONAL DE SUPERCOMPUTACIÓN
- DWD – DEUTSCHER WETTERDIENST
- MetO – MET OFFICE
- NERSC – NANSEN ENVIRONMENTAL AND REMOTE SENSING CENTER
- UiB – University of Bergen