C3S_34c – Prototype Service for decadal climate predictions

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) currently includes operational predictions for seasonal timescales, as well as infrastructure for accessing climate projections for centennial timescales. In this project prototype services for climate predictions targeting the time horizon of years to decades ahead will be developed. The goal is to develop precursors for decadal prediction services targeting the time horizon when climate variability and anthropogenic climate change are expected to have comparable magnitude, and thus both need to be carefully considered and combined in creating outlooks of relevance to users. The work in this tender will demonstrate capability and applicability of predictive information on such timescales and complement related activities underway in the research community. Each partner, DWD (Germany), BSC (Spain), UKMO (United Kingdom) and CMCC (Italy), will work on a different climate service tailored to the needs of a specific stakeholder, thus covering four different sectors, respectively: infrastructure, agriculture, insurance and the energy sector. In particular, CMCC collaborates with ENEL Hydropower to develop a prototype service based on multi-model decadal predictions.

Duration
18 MONTHS from 01/11/2019 to 30/04/2021
Funded by
  • EU - Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)

Coordinating organization
  • Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)

CMCC Scientific Leader
CMCC Project manager
Division

General aims

General Aims

Develop a number of usable prototype climate services for different business sectors capitalizing from leading European decadal prediction systems to serve as guiding paradigms for the respective predictions that are soon to become fully operational.

CMCC role

In collaboration with ENEL-GP (link to URL: https://www.enelgreenpower.com), CMCC will provide information in the form of a prototype climate service, based on multi-model decadal predictions, regarding the operation of the company’s hydropower plants in Italy and Spain (WP2). CMCC is also involved in WP1 that aims at setting European (and international) standards for post-processing, encoding and sharing decadal prediction data.

Activities

Analysis of model and observational data, participation to monthly meetings with all partners (virtual), general project assemblies, dissemination activities, and preparation of project milestones and deliverables.

Expected results

General multi-aspect predictive skill assessment, statistical analysis of precipitation timeseries referring to the domains of interest, predictions of river discharge following a twofold approach: direct dynamical predictions linking to the model precipitation and temperature anomalies, and indirect statistical predictions based on predictors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation index.

Partners :
CMCC Foundation
Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC)
Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)
UK Met Office (Met Office)

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