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2D4D – Disruptive Digitalization for Decarbonization

Digitalization will fundamentally change all sectors of the European economy in the next decades. At the same time, the EU is committed to reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. These two transformation will undoubtedly affect each other, but the extent to which they will be mutually supporting is currently unknown. Most importantly, there is a danger that the digital transformation will delay the progress towards a net-zero carbon economy. The EU-funded 2D4D project aims at ensuring that the digital transformation is not a barrier to decarbonisation, rather an enabler. The project will identify and measure the decarbonisation consequences of three disruptive digitalisation technologies in hard-to-decarbonise sectors: additive manufacturing in industry, mobility-as-a-service in transportation, and AI in buildings. The project will produce a distinctive data collection to examine the technical and socioeconomic potential of these technologies, enhance decarbonisation narratives and ensure that digital technology supports energy transition.

ACCREU: Assessing Climate Change Risk in EUrope

ACCREU is a project funded by HORIZON Europe RIA (Research and Innovation Action) investigating, in a fully integrated framework, climate change impacts, mitigation, adaptation and prospects for a sustainable social and economic development in the EU. ACCREU will  identify challenges, highlight opportunities and deliver practical solutions to policy making and societal actors at the EU, EU Member State, region and community level to accelerate a just societal transformation towards climate resilience in the short, medium and long term.  

AdJUST – ADVANCING THE UNDERSTANDING OF CHALLENGES, POLICY OPTIONS AND MEASURES TO ACHIEVE A JUST EU ENERGY TRANSITION

AdJUST is a project funded by the European Union’s Horizon Europe programme. and carried out by a transdisciplinary European consortium consisting of 9 EU partners, 2 UK associated partners and other 11 EU associated partners. The objectives of AdJUST are to achieve a step change in societal understanding of the distributive repercussions of the transition to climate neutrality, and to identify effective and actively-supported policy interventions to accompany climate action so that no-one is left behind.

BELIEFS: Climate-related Beliefs and Low-Carbon Transition Dynamics

The transitioning to a low-carbon society, as mandated by the Paris Agreement and net-zero targets, requires substantial investments. These decisions rely heavily on firms’ expectations, yet significant knowledge gaps exist: current models can’t fully assess their impact, empirical data is limited, and there’s little understanding of what drives their evolution and how to align them with climate goals. Misaligned expectations risk failure or disorderly decarbonisation. The BELIEFS project will lay the foundations of a novel analytical framework capable of shedding light on the complex interaction between firms’ beliefs, investment decision-making and climate policy strategies, so as to identify credible paths to a netzero society. The project will deliver a methodological breakthrough by developing a dynamic transition model with a realistic representation of expectations as heterogeneous, evolving and interdependent. A large survey will provide the first comprehensive empirical assessment of transition expectations and their influence on decisions. The results of the project will be pivotal in identifying effective policy and institutional strategies to ensure alignment of beliefs, thereby enabling a swift and orderly decarbonisation process. Over the course of five years, BELIEFS aims to offer pioneering interdisciplinary contributions to advance our understanding of the macro-behavioural dimensions of low-carbon transitions, integrating elements from climate economics, transition theory, behavioural sciences and political economy. 

CircEUlar – Developing circular pathways for a EU low-carbon transition

CircEUlar is a project funded by the European Union’s Horizon Europe programme and carried out by a consortium of 10 European organisations. The CircEUlar project aims to understand the dynamics and levers for societal transformation towards a net-zero emission circular economy. The project will address circularity through three main levers: 1) societal transformation to limit material stock growth through dematerialisation, material efficiency, and a transition to a service-based economy; 2) product lifetime extension through repair, maintenance, resale, reuse, and repurposing of obsolete fossil infrastructures; 3) waste reduction management through collection and treatment systems that optimise reuse and recycling. The project considers three focus areas for deep-dive empirical and modelling analysis, integrated into economy-wide modelling frameworks and pathways assessment: digitalisation, mobility and buildings and household services.

CO-CREATE: Conditions for Responsible Research of SRM – Analysis, Co-Creation, and Ethos

Experimental research on solar radiation modification (SRM) is controversial and feared to distract from climate change mitigation or lead to dangerous SRM use.  Co-CREATE seeks to help structure this decision problem through co-creative scoping, analysis, and engagement to develop principles and guidelines. Starting with a series of scoping notes that outline key dimensions of experimental SRM research, the project will analyze and develop decision-support tools by asking what we can learn from governance analogues, and how various (risk) evaluation frameworks may help identify key characteristics of research proposals. Furthermore, CO-CREATE itself will enter an extensive stakeholder and rightsholder dialogue that validates preliminary analytical work, ensures stakeholders’ diverse dimensions of concern are included, and strengthens deliberative capacity. Co-CREATE proposes guidelines and principles to facilitate decision-making by the relevant authorities on broader categories of experimental research of SRM and case-by-case decisions.

COMMITTED – Climate pOlicy assessment and Mitigation Modeling to Integrate national and global TransiTion pathways for Environmental-friendly Development

To support the international negotiation process, there must be a good understanding of different outcomes and assumptions between the analytical teams that provide input into the negotiations and/or directly support the development of the low-emission mid-century strategies. In such a situation, negotiators can start from a common understanding of the knowledge base and the associated uncertainties. COMMITTED aims to contribute to both 1) supporting the analytical capacity for national teams to provide analyses of NDCs and long-term mitigation strategies and pathways in Asian countries and 2) creating a robust scientific understanding of the possibilities, sectoral potentials and socioeconomic implications of different countries to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in the context of long-term low-emission development strategies and the overall objectives of the Paris Agreement. In the past, model comparison projects and interactions between modelling groups and policymakers have proven to be effective instruments for achieving these goals.

EarthGenerator a foundation model for Earth system modelling

EarthGenerator will deliver a foundation model of the Earth system, extending the WeatherGenerator model by integrating atmosphere, ocean, and land in a single, physically consistent model. By adopting a generative AI approach, EarthGenerator will provide a general-purpose capability adaptable to multiple downstream tasks from seasonal forecasting to multi-annual climate projections with minimal additional training.

EDITS7: Energy Demand changes Induced by Technological and Social innovations

The EDITS (Energy Demand changes Induced by Technological and Social innovations) project is operated by RITE as a commissioned project of METI, with the aim of conducting a comprehensive analysis and evaluation of CO2 emission reductions and changes in energy demand brought about by technological innovation.

ELEVATE – Enabling and Leveraging Climate Action Towards Netzero Emissions

ELEVATE is a project funded by the European Union’s Horizon Europe programme and the consortium consists of 20 partners, and brings together leading research groups to support climate policymaking within and outside the EU. These research groups are involved in modelling international climate policy, national policies, social science, policy analysis, environmental assessment, and stakeholder engagement. World-leading institutions in global integrated assessment modelling are a central part of the ELEVATE consortium (IIASA, PBL, PIK, CMCC, E3M, NIES, KU, UFRJ/COPPETEC, and UMD). This means that the consortium involves all teams that have played a leading role in the coordination and development of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, which serve to integrate the assessment of mitigation, adaptation and impacts research across the climate change science community.

ENTICE: ENhanced understanding of Trade Impacts on Climate, industries, and the Environment

Despite the wide recognition of the complex interactions between trade (policy) and climate (policy), the state-of-the-art capabilities in macroeconomic models face substantial limitations, such as lack of granular data, dependence on conventional trade theories, limited empirical evidence on trade-climate interactions, limited representation of the value and material chain in key (existing and emerging) sectors, heavy reliance on frameworks not accounting for endogenous technical change, limited understanding of the role of developing countries in trade, etc.

EUCRA-2: European Climate Risk Assessment 2

This contract will aim at carrying out the European Climate Risk Assessment 2 (EUCRA-2). EUCRA-2 will ensure that Europe’s climate risk knowledge stays up-to-date and actionable throughout high-level risk assessments and recommendations tailored to EU policy contexts.

EUNICE – Debiasing the uncertainties of climate stabilization ensembles

Mathematical models have become central tools in global environmental assessments. To serve society well, climate change stabilization assessments need to capture the uncertainties of the deep future, be statistically sound and track near-term disruptions. Up to now, conceptual, computational and data constraints have limited the quantification of uncertainties of climate stabilization pathways to a narrow set, focused on the current century. The statistical interpretation of scenarios generated by multi-model ensembles is problematic due to availability biases and model dependencies. Scenario plausibility assessments are scant. Simplified, single-objective decision criteria frameworks are used to translate decarbonization uncertainties into decision rules whose understanding is not validated. 

FIND: Finance and Innovation to couple Negative emissions and sustainable Development

Current global climate action is deeply insufficient to deliver the objectives of the Paris Agreement and containing global warming to 1.5 °C will likely require the deployment of carbon dioxide removals. However, the technologies to sequestrate and store carbon from the atmosphere are currently immature, risky, and highly questioned. Understanding the effective diffusion potential of carbon removal methods and their socioeconomic and environmental impacts is pivotal to design future climate action. FIND will help to develop an innovative framework to assess the feasibility and social desirability of limiting global warming through the diffusion of negative emission technologies. It aims to ensure that negative emission technologies act as an enabler, not a barrier, of long-run sustainable development. The project will evaluate climate and non-climate policies to create robust, no-regret policy portfolios supporting a rapid and sustainable path to a net-zero society. FIND will be of high relevance for public policy and civil society, especially considering Europe’s commitment to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 while spurring green and inclusive growth.

FUTURA: Future of Climate Change Scenarios of the Earth System, Impacts and Socio-Economic Outcomes for Assessment and AND Society

For the first time, all major European modelling and infrastructure efforts are coordinated within a dedicated project to develop and deploy a sustainable and unified system for delivering future emissions and land-use scenarios, and climate and impact projections. This system is referred to hereafter as the’climate pathways system’. It is designed to support climate research, international assessments, and climate policy for the coming decades. FUTURA explores how to design a new cyclical scenario generation protocol built from process-resolving models complemented by emulator and AI approaches. It shifts from causal-chain modelling workflows to a unified system that unifies multi-annual process-driven iterations complemented by the ability to run fast annual iterations. We address how to best align this system with policy timeframes, and how to effectively leverage the model and data multiverse to advance understanding while supporting researchers, practitioners, and policymakers. The FUTURA climate pathways system represents a significant step towards the sustained and responsive delivery of climate projections in support of climate assessment and policy.

I servizi ecosistemici marini: studio e analisi delle metodologie di valutazione biofisica ed economica, predisposizione di un tool per l’automazione del processo di valutazione

Il progetto è realizzato nell’ambito del quadro istituzionale della Direttiva europea sulla Strategia Marina e del suo recepimento normativo (D.lgs. n. 190 del 13 ottobre 2010), con il MASE (Ministero dell’Ambiente e della Sicurezza Energetica) quale autorità di riferimento e l’ISPRA (Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale) come partner. L’iniziativa è finalizzata allo sviluppo e alla validazione di una metodologia integrata per la valutazione biofisica ed economica dei servizi ecosistemici marino-costieri e alla realizzazione di un tool informatizzato in ambiente GIS in grado di automatizzarne il calcolo e la restituzione cartografica. Il sistema consentirà di valutare in modo quantitativo servizi quali sequestro di carbonio, produzione di ossigeno, produzione di cibo, protezione dall’erosione e bioremediation, con applicazione in aree pilota e potenziale estensione a scala nazionale. Il progetto contribuisce a rafforzare le basi scientifiche a supporto delle attività di tutela, monitoraggio e ripristino degli ecosistemi marino-costieri.

NEWPATHWAYS: New pathways for equitable climate action in line with the paris agreement and sustainable development

NEWPATHWAYS is a project funded by the European Union’s Horizon Europe programme and the consortium consists of 13 partners, and brings together leading research groups to support climate policymaking within and outside the EU. These research groups are involved in modelling international climate policy, national policies, social science, policy analysis, environmental assessment, and stakeholder engagement.

PRISMA – Net zero Pathway Research through Integrated Assessment Model Advancements

Introduction The ambition to achieve the Paris Agreement goals has led to the realization that a rapid and full decarbonization of the economy is required, involving a structural transition of the current economy and society. With the rise of quantified policy targets, policy packages, and consideration of multiple dimensions and sectors, Integrated Assessment Models with their ability to consider complex relationships and provide calibrated numerical results have become ever more important in the last decade. The PRISMA project aims to bring these models to the next level by focusing on four key areas of improvement, namely the representation of distributional justice and efficiency, innovation and finance, climate impacts and land-use implications, and lifestyle change and circularity. In these four key areas we will improve existing large-scale IAMs and sectorial models, and consider the linking of different models where applicable. Two cross-cutting shared themes across these areas are the improvement of the temporal and spatial resolution of the analysis, and the representation of disruptive and structural change in the economy. Notably we will increase the spatial granularity with a focus on Europe, and look at the yearly and in particular near term detailed modeling of rapid decarbonization pathways. The extensive model development will be co-designed through an interactive stakeholder engagement process from the beginning, and focus on model openness and usability to ensure the stakeholder and policy relevance. Moreover, PRISMA will focus in its application on the analysis of the spectrum of Fit for 55 package policies of the EU developing focalized

PRUDENT: Promoting Green Nudging for Sustainable Agriculture and Forestry

PRUDENT aspires to revolutionize agriculture and forestry by promoting sustainable practices and innovative farming technologies. The project will explore the use of “nudges”, small changes in how farmers and foresters make decisions, to encourage them to adopt more sustainable approaches. These nudges will be tested in real-life situations alongside policy changes to see their combined effect on sustainability. Innovative tools, like web or mobile apps, will be developed to help farmers and foresters regulate their actions and make lasting changes, supporting these behaviour changes. Different types of farming and forestry systems across Europe will be studied to understand their unique challenges. The insights gained from this research will create new ways of thinking about agriculture and forestry, including social innovations, business models, and policy recommendations. 

SPARCCLE – Socioeconomic Pathways, Adaptation and Resilience to Changing CLimate in Europe

The SPARCCLE is a project funded by the European Union’s Horizon Europe program, and it is focused on delivering adaptation and mitigation strategies for a just and climate-resilient Europe. The project aims to support policymaking for action on the socioeconomic risks of climate change, establishing new methodological frameworks to link knowledge across disciplines from research communities working on climate impacts and risks in Europe. Bottom-up assessments of multidimensional climate vulnerabilities, risks, damages, and adaptation will be combined with top-down integrated assessment frameworks (IAFs) and leading multi-sectoral macroeconomic models.

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