RP0106 – A tale of two countries: emissions scenarios for China and India

Division ECIP - Economic analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy Division
3/2011

Authors

  • Carlo CarraroFEEM - Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, CMCC - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, University Ca’ Foscari Venice
  • Emanuele MassettiFEEM - Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, CMCC - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
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The paper examines future energy and emissions scenarios in China, presenting historical data and scenarios generated using the Integrated Assessment Model WITCH. A Business-as-Usual scenario is compared with four scenarios in which Greenhouse Gases emissions are taxed, at different levels. Key insights are provided to evaluate the Chinese pledge to reduce the emissions intensity of Gross Domestic Product by 40/45 percent in 2020 contained in the Copenhagen Accord. Marginal and total abatement costs are discussed using the OECD economies as a term of comparison. Cost estimates for different emissions reduction targets are used to assess the political feasibility of the 50 percent global reduction target set by the G8 and Major Economies Forum in July 2009.

  • issn: Q4
  • Keywords: China, Climate Change, Energy and Development., Energy Efficiency

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