CMCC researchers have developed a new storm surge forecasting framework for the Venice Lagoon that can test different barrier operating strategies before a storm hits, helping decisionmakers reduce flood risk while avoiding an all‑or‑nothing approach to closing the MoSE gates.

Sea‑level forecasting in Venice is crucial to protect the city, its cultural heritage and its lagoon from “acqua alta” flood events, which are expected to become more frequent and damaging under climate change. The new study, published in Frontiers in Marine Science, presents an operational architecture that focuses specifically on the local effects of the MoSE movable barriers at short lead times of days.

As lead author Marco Boetti explains, “The present work introduces an operational forecasting architecture that can test different operating choices for the MoSE movable barriers before an event happens, and better forecasting can help not only to protect Venice from storms, but also to explore different barrier strategies in advance helping in MoSE management and provide a support tool for decisionmakers.”

The framework is designed to run “what‑if” simulations that compare different MoSE operating strategies under the same forecast storm surge event. In the case study analysed, the system investigates three main situations in the Venice Lagoon: an “unregulated” configuration fully open to the sea, a configuration with all barriers activated as in the real November 2022 event, and several “partial closure” setups where only some gates are raised.

Activating the barriers can reduce water levels inside the lagoon by up to about 1 metre compared with leaving the lagoon unprotected, in line with observed behaviour during major surges. Even with barriers only partially active, water levels are still lower than in the fully open case, and the timing of the surge changes, with peak levels arriving later and receding more gradually.

Technically, the work combines a meteorological and ocean forecasting chain from the Mediterranean scale down to the urban scale of the Venice Lagoon, allowing for very high resolution along complex coastal boundaries. It also develops a system for representing the MoSE barriers explicitly within the lagoon model, a key innovation.

Case study: November 2022 storm surge

To test the framework, the study focuses on a major storm surge that affected Venice in November 2022, using operational weather forecasts as input and then simulating lagoon water levels under different barrier strategies. The results demonstrate that the proposed system can accurately forecast storm surges within the lagoon, producing water‑level predictions that reproduce observed levels when the barriers are fully activated.

Beyond confirming the reliability of the modelling approach, the analysis shows that protection does not necessarily depend on a binary choice between fully open and fully closed: a spectrum of operating configurations can still substantially reduce flood impacts. This offers local authorities a way to evaluate trade‑offs between protecting the historic city, limiting disruption to navigation and lagoon exchanges, and managing the operational costs and impacts of barrier closures.

Looking ahead, Boetti stresses the broader value of methodological advances for coastal risk management: “One of the most rewarding aspects of this work was developing and applying new techniques to improve ocean modeling. In the long term, advancements like this can strengthen forecasting, improve early warning systems, and hopefully, support more informed decision making.”

For more information:

Boetti M, Causio S, Goglio AC, Clementi E, Coppini G and Federico I (2026) Model framework for storm surge forecasting in Venice Lagoon: what-if scenario with movable barriers. Front. Mar. Sci. 13:1771571. doi: 10.3389/fmars.2026.1771571