In different areas of the world, shallow landslides represent a remarkable hazard inducing fatalities and economic damages. Then, the evaluation about potential variation in frequency of such hazard under the effect of climate changes should be a priority for defining reliable adaptation measurements. The quantification of the potential effects of climate change should be essential especially for the design and development of future territorial planning or updates of early warning systems.
Unfortunately, current performances of climate models on sub-daily scales, relevant for heavy rainfall events triggering shallow landslides, are not reliable enough to be used directly for performing slope stability analysis. In an attempt to overcome the constrains by gap in time resolution between climate and hazard models, a new study recently published on Landslides (among the authors, CMCC Foundation researchers F.Ciervo, G. Rianna, P. Mercogliano from REMHI Division) presents an integrated suitable approach for estimating future variations in shallow landslide hazard and managing the uncertainties associated with climate and sub-daily downscaling models.
The approach is tested on a small basin on Amalfi coast.
The paper outlines how the projected changes in precipitation patterns could affect local slope stability magnitude scenarios while assessing future effectiveness of the local operative warning systems in a climate change framework.
Moreover, the authors investigate potential effects of climate changes on soil–atmosphere interaction, responsible for changes in soil moisture and, then, slope response, in a paper on Natural Hazards. It is shown that, beyond the variations induced by climate changes, soil nature and land cover could play a major role.
- Ciervo F., Rianna G., Mercogliano P., Papa M.N.
Effects of climate change on shallow landslides in a small coastal catchment in southern Italy
2016, Landslides, 1-13, DOI: 10.1007/s10346-016-0743-1
- Rianna G., Comegna L., Mercogliano P., Picarelli L.
Potential effects of climate changes on soil–atmosphere interaction and landslide hazard
2016, Natural Hazards, 1-13, DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2481-z, web page