The project provides a complete technical solution for the production of monthly seasonal forecasts in real time according to a pre-established operational programme.
The project also involves additional development activities to be carried out with the aim of improving the quality and range of the CMCC seasonal forecasting operational system. These complementary activities include :
- a new ensemble of extended (16 months) hindcasts and real-time forecasts.
- A portfolio of workflows, structured as Jupyter Notebooks will be produced, aiming at analyzing the capability of dynamical seasonal forecast ensembles to detect and predict Extreme Events, focusing on heatwaves and tropical cyclones.
- New land initial conditions will be implemented in the operational chain.
32 months da 01/11/2025 a 30/06/2028
General aims
The core objective of the contract covers the fundamental following points:
- regular and timely supply of global seasonal forecasts – real time and retrospective forecasts (hindcasts);
- timely support to C3S seasonal prediction multi-system operations;
- provision of inputs to data and product documentation;
- maintenance of high-quality real-time forecast system and production procedures;
- contribution to C3S communication and outreach activities, related to seasonal predictions.
- contributing to the innovative effort of producing and evaluating extended-seasonal (longer than a year) predictions in the C3S framework.
CMCC role
WP0-WP1-WP2-WP3-WP4
Activities
WP1- “Operations” This work package aims at maintaining the two operational chains, the first for the usual, continuous 6-month seasonal forecasting (32 instances) and the second for the extended 16-month forecasts.
WP2-“Production and evaluation of multi-year predictions” This work package aims at contributing to the multi-system experiment of extended-range predictions in the C3S framework. In this work package CMCC will run a new ensemble of extended-range (16-month long) hindcasts and two corresponding real-time forecasts, by employing the same model configuration and set of initial conditions used for operational seasonal forecasts (SPS4).
In WP3, “Jupyter Notebooks for seasonal forecast of extreme events” The purpose of this work package is to design and develop applications to explore the capability of C3S seasonal prediction systems in forecasting extreme events (heatwaves and tropical cyclones). A set of algorithms will be implemented computing established indicators and diagnostics of interest for potential end-users from different sectors. These applications will be developed as Jupyter Notebooks to contribute to the C3S portfolio of examples and workflows.
In WP4, -“Land Initialization”, This work package aims at operationalizing the land surface initial conditions based on the land analysis system developed in the framework of the EU-Horizon project CERISE.
Expected results
- regular and timely supply of global seasonal forecasts – real time and retrospective forecasts (hindcasts);
- timely support to C3S seasonal prediction multi-system operations;
- provision of inputs to data and product documentation;
- maintenance of high-quality real-time forecast system and production procedures;
- contribution to C3S communication and outreach activities, related to seasonal predictions.
- contributing to the innovative effort of producing and evaluating extended-seasonal (longer than a year) predictions in the C3S framework.
Partners
CINECA – Consorzio Interuniversitario per il Calcolo Automatico dell’Italia Nord Orientale